February's U.S. employment data, released on Friday, was disappointing. Non-farm payrolls were close to expectations (151,000 versus 159,000), but other indicators showed significant deterioration. The labor force participation rate dropped from 62.6% to 62.4%, overall unemployment increased from 4.0% to 4.1%, and the broader U-6 unemployment rate jumped from 7.5% to 8.0%. In response to these developments and declining government bond yields, the euro gained 48 pips.
So far, signs of a crisis have not fully emerged but are anticipated. Even Federal Reserve officials and key business leaders are hinting at potential economic challenges. Christopher Waller has suggested that the Fed may lower interest rates three times by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the euro is expected to rise further, targeting levels of 1.0949 and 1.1027. Given that the Marlin oscillator is nearing the overbought zone, a correction could occur from one of these levels.
On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator has reset after a sharp decline from its peak on March 5-6. It is now positioned to resume growth with renewed strength, aiming to break above the nearest resistance level.
