The British pound has paused and strengthened at the target level of 1.3001 ahead of today's Federal Reserve meeting. The technical analysis indicates that the uptrend remains dominant, with a 60% probability of continued growth and only a 40% chance of a reversal (the latter targeting 1.2616, which is near the MACD line). Our analysis suggests that the Fed meeting will have a greater impact on the pound than tomorrow's Bank of England meeting, due to its geopolitical significance.
From a technical perspective, the pound has a clearer path upward, with the target of 1.3184 seeming achievable. A reversal is more challenging given the multiple technical support levels; however, it will eventually occur. Could today be the day? If so, the nearest targets would be 1.2816/47. The daily Marlin oscillator could either turn upward from the support level of 0.0133 or break through it and fall below the zero line.
On the four-hour chart, the price has formed a wedge, with its peak at the 1.3001 resistance level. The Marlin oscillator is consolidating in positive territory, and a breakout could occur in either direction. We are waiting to see how the market reacts to the extended Fed meeting release.
