The key economic report yesterday—U.S. Q4 GDP—came in at 2.4% versus 2.3% expected. However, three major agencies—Moody's, Fitch Ratings, and S&P Global—warned of a potential downturn due to restrictive tariffs, and the Congressional Budget Office lowered its growth forecast for the current year to 1.9% while also predicting inflation stabilization. As a result, the euro rose by 60 pips, reclaiming the technical level of 1.0762. This confirms that the dip below support on March 26 was false and indicates a more serious reversal than what we saw 2–3 days ago.
There is one caveat—the Marlin oscillator's signal line on the daily timeframe has not yet returned to positive territory after exiting it on Wednesday. Marlin will reenter the growth zone once the price surpasses yesterday's high at 1.0822. That would be a signal for a move toward the 1.0955 target. A breakout above this resistance would open the path toward 1.1027.
However, if the price drops below yesterday's low of 1.0733, it may not stop at the first support at 1.0667, as the market is teetering between two fundamental narratives: the brewing crisis and capital flight into safety with potential Treasury QE support and the re-emergence of risk appetite over the next quarter.
On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator's signal line sharply reversed from the lower boundary of its range and is now in bullish territory. The balance indicator line halted yesterday's price surge. A move above yesterday's high could also push the price above this balance line. The primary scenario remains bullish.
