Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro
The price test at 1.0785 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. A second test at 1.0786 happened while the MACD was in the oversold zone, which triggered Buy Scenario #2. As a result, the pair gained 20 points.
Negative data from Germany, particularly regarding the labor market, sparked concerns about economic growth prospects. Investors began actively selling euro-denominated assets, putting additional pressure on the currency.
Today, we expect figures for the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Analysts and investors will closely monitor the dynamics of this indicator to assess how steadily inflation is slowing and what steps the Fed might take at upcoming meetings. Household income and spending data are equally important. A rise in spending may point to strong consumer demand, potentially pushing inflation higher. On the other hand, rising incomes could cushion the negative impact of inflation on households.
As for intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the entry point around 1.0787 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.0815. At 1.0815, I will exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move. Euro growth today can only be expected following weak U.S. data and dovish statements from Fed officials. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.0765 twice in a row, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and prompt a market reversal upward. You can then expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.0787 and 1.0815.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.0765 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0740, where I'll exit the market and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point rebound. Pressure on the pair could return if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0787 level, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and result in a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0765 and 1.0740 can be expected.
Chart Details:
- Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
- Thick green line – assumed level for placing Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
- Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
- Thick red line – assumed level for placing Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
- MACD indicator – use overbought/oversold zones when entering the market.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan—like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
