Last Friday, global markets continued to decline — albeit unevenly: the S&P 500 fell by 5.97%, oil by 7.41%, commodity currencies lost around 2% on average, and the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasuries dropped from 3.73% to 3.55%. However, the euro declined by only 0.80%, while the dollar rose by 0.58% against the yen. Today, the euro opened with a 68-pip downward gap, which it filled within an hour and fifteen minutes. Since this morning, all instruments — including S&P 500 futures — have been rising. We believe the market has primarily absorbed the short-term effects of China's newly imposed 34% tariffs on U.S. goods over the weekend.
On the daily chart, the euro has broken above the 1.0955 level. The Marlin oscillator is ready to resume growth after stabilizing in positive territory. A breakout above the nearest resistance at 1.1027 will open the way to the target range of 1.1110/50. From there, a move toward 1.1276 — the July 2023 peak — becomes likely, and at that point, a synchronized reversal with the equity market may occur, triggering a new wave of euro weakening. This would represent a typical crisis-style correlation.
The Marlin oscillator shows signs of a reversal from the neutral zero line on the four-hour chart. The price has consolidated above the 1.0955 level. We expect continued growth toward the first target at 1.1027, followed by an extended move into the 1.1110/50 target zone.
