The Japanese yen fell significantly the day before on unexpected news of a 90-day pause in trade wars. This development supported the dollar, but whether its growth will continue remains uncertain. Today's U.S. consumer inflation data is expected to show a slowdown for March. If confirmed, the pair could decline sharply, as this would strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once this year. At the same time, the Bank of Japan is leaning toward raising rates. This suggests a growing divergence in interest rate policies.
From a technical standpoint, the pair trades within a wide range of 144.20–148.00. Given today's U.S. news, it may drop toward the lower boundary of this range.
Technical Outlook and Trade Idea:
- The price is above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and well above both the SMA 5 and SMA 14.
- RSI is just below the 50% mark.
- Stochastic is above 50% but is turning downward, indicating a potential bearish crossover.
I believe the pair may decline toward 144.20. A potential entry point is at 146.38.
