Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:
No macroeconomic events are scheduled for Monday. However, the macroeconomic background is not of much interest to traders at the moment. At the very least, it does not drive the pair's movements. Therefore, even without macroeconomic reports on Monday, we may still see another "storm" in the market.
Analysis of Fundamental Events:
There is no point in discussing fundamental topics other than Trump's trade war. The dollar's decline may continue for as long as it wants. We advise traders to pay close attention to statements made by key figures from the world's major countries and alliances regarding tariffs. Trump has stated that any response to his measures to "eliminate unfairness" will be harshly punished with new sanctions and tariffs. At the same time, the U.S. President introduced a 90-day grace period for all countries except China, during which a flat 10% import tariff will apply. According to Trump, this time is intended for trade negotiations. However, we'd like to remind readers that the chances of concluding trade deals with the EU and China remain extremely low. Tariffs against China continue to rise, and there's no reason to believe China will back down. For the market, the key focus remains the trade relationships between the U.S., China, and the U.S. and the EU.
General Conclusions:
Both currency pairs may move in either direction during the first trading day of the new week. The market remains in a state of panic and chaos, so applying logic to price movements is impossible. News about the trade war comes every couple of hours, and it's impossible to predict when it will arrive or what Trump will do next.
Key Rules for the Trading System:
- Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
- False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
- Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
- Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
- MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
- Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
- Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.
Key Chart Elements:
Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.
Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.
Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.
Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.
