Yesterday, the USD/JPY pair posted solid growth—0.90% or 149 pips—on the back of a 0.42% strengthening of the U.S. dollar index. As a result, the price is now trading above the daily balance, and MACD indicator lines, and even the Marlin oscillator has moved into positive territory.
The price may enter the 145.08–145.91 range, but there is a risk that the breakout above the indicator lines is a false move. If the price drops below 143.45 (reinforced by the MACD line), this would confirm the false breakout and support a decline toward the target support at 141.70, potentially continuing to 139.59.
If the price does enter the 145.08–145.91 range but fails to hold within it, a reversal back to 143.45 is also expected soon after. Only a confirmed breakout above the 145.91 level would open the door to an alternative scenario, implying further growth toward 148.66.
On the 4-hour chart, the price has slowed down its advance after interacting with the MACD line. The correction reached 38.2% of the latest downward leg, sufficient to complete a corrective phase.
Overall, the pair is in a neutral state, and price action over the next one to two days may consist of sideways or erratic movement without clear directional bias.
