Trade Review and Recommendations for Trading the Japanese Yen
The test of the 143.73 level occurred as the MACD indicator began rising from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. This led to a rally of over 50 points in the pair.
Only strong U.S. ADP employment data for June can drive USD/JPY higher, breaking the recent consolidation trend and encouraging bullish activity. The market, weary of constant uncertainty from Trump and mixed signals, is eager for clear confirmation of U.S. economic resilience. The ADP report, often seen as a preview of official labor data, could serve as a catalyst for change. A reading above expectations in private sector job growth would strengthen the dollar and influence the Federal Reserve's outlook. Confidence in U.S. economic strength may also prompt the Bank of Japan to remain cautious regarding any future policy adjustments, thereby maintaining the current interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan.
As for intraday strategy, I'll mainly focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1:Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 144.17 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 144.64 (thicker green line). At 144.64, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. A meaningful rise today is only likely if the data is strong.Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2:I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests the 143.86 level twice in a row while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A rally toward 144.17 and 144.64 may follow.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1:I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 143.86 (red line on the chart), which may lead to a sharp drop in the pair. Sellers' primary target will be 143.41, where I'll exit shorts and consider long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Downward pressure will return if the data disappoints.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2:I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 144.17 twice while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upside and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 143.86 and 143.41 can be expected.
Chart Legend:
- Thin green line – Entry price to buy the instrument
- Thick green line – Suggested Take Profit or exit level, as further growth beyond this point is unlikely
- Thin red line – Entry price to sell the instrument
- Thick red line – Suggested Take Profit or exit level, as further decline beyond this point is unlikely
- MACD Indicator – Entry decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold zones
Important Note:Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when entering the market. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of key fundamental reports to avoid sudden price spikes. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Without stop-losses, you risk losing your entire deposit quickly—especially if you don't follow money management rules and trade with large volumes.
And remember: successful trading requires a clear and structured trading plan, like the one presented above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
