The euro is trading around 1.1143, rebounding after hitting the October 13 low, which also formed a double- bottom pattern. As a result, EUR/USD is showing signs of recovery, and we can expect it to consolidate above the Murray -2/8 level in the coming days, which could be interpreted as a positive signal to buy.
If the euro remains above 1.1115 in the coming days, a pullback to this area followed by a rally above that level could present an opportunity to buy the euro, anticipating that the instrument will reach the 0/8 Murray level at 1.1230. If EUR/USD breaks decisively above the downtrend channel around 1.1240, it could reach the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1291.
Given that the euro has been under downward pressure for several consecutive sessions, if it consolidates around the -2/8 Murray level in the coming hours—or even if it touches this level—we could expect a technical rebound, which could confirm that EUR/USD has reached oversold levels and may be preparing for a trend reversal or a rebound toward the 1.1230 level.
We must closely monitor the euro's price; a drop below 1.1108 could reverse the bullish scenario, and we could expect a rapid decline toward the psychological level of 1.10, which would keep the euro under strong downward pressure and could even enable a further downtrend.
Given that the euro has been oversold since early October, we believe it could return to the 200-day moving average around 1.13 in the coming days.
