On the daily chart, the price has consolidated below the 1.1692 level. The Marlin oscillator is currently entering the territory of a downward trend. The target at 1.1535 is now open. A break below this level would pave the way for further decline toward 1.1420.
A price increase toward the upper boundary of the price channel (1.1832) is now considered an alternative scenario. For this to materialize, the price must consolidate above the MACD line, that is, above 1.1718. On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator is struggling to move away from the zero line to the downside, creating a precondition for potential growth.
However, the price must go through significant effort: first consolidate above 1.1692, then above 1.1718, and finally break through 1.1758 (the MACD line on H4). If any upward movement does occur, it is likely to be choppy and inconsistent.
Today, the Eurozone will release industrial production data for May (forecast: 0.6%) and economic sentiment data for July (forecast: 37.8 vs. previous 35.3). In the U.S., the June CPI will be released (forecast: 2.6% y/y vs. 2.4% y/y in May).
This mix of uncertainty and uneven movement further reinforces expectations of a choppy trend, even if the euro continues to decline.
