On Thursday, the euro closed the day down by 43 pips, yet overall, risk appetite is returning to the markets: the S&P 500 rose 0.54%, WTI oil gained 1.76%, Bitcoin increased by 0.43%, and although government bond yields have been moving sideways for the past four days, they are still signaling a desire to continue the upward trend of the past two weeks. With such sentiment, the euro may see further gains.
The euro has expanded its range of free movement up to the MACD line resistance zone, located at 1.1535–1.1740. This range may hold until the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, which is expected to trigger a major reversal across all markets.
In the current setup, the euro is technically ready for a downward breakout, as it remains below the MACD line, yet it continues to hover above the balance line, indicating that investor interest in buying remains. This setup suggests sideways movement in the coming days. A firm move below 1.1535 would open the path to the 1.1420 target. The Marlin oscillator remains in negative territory, reacting sensitively to changes in risk sentiment.
On the H4 chart, the MACD line is approaching the key resistance at 1.1692. If the euro continues to rise, the line may reach that level just before the price touches it, strengthening the resistance and possibly triggering a pullback. A breakout above 1.1692 would add further optimism, opening the way for an attack on 1.1740.Convergence is encouraging the price to test the nearest resistance.
