The euro is trading around 1.1230, having consolidated since September 30 within the range of 1.1250 to 1.1108.
The euro is approaching strong resistance around the Murray 4/8 level and near the upper band of the downtrend channel that has formed since August 14.
If EUR/USD breaks above this resistance and consolidates above 1.1230 in the coming days, it could be expected to reach the Murray 5/8 level, around 1.1352, and ultimately reach the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), around 1.1450.
On the other hand, if the strong resistance of the downtrend channel—combined with the Murray 4/8 level—proves to be a barrier, we could expect the euro to fall below this zone toward the 21-day simple moving average (SMA), located at 1.1198, and eventually reach the Murray 3/8 level, around 1.1108.
The euro has been consolidating within this price range for over a month, below the Murray 4/8 level. From a technical perspective, we believe this situation could persist in the coming days, and to confirm this, we must monitor whether the price remains below 1.1230.
The Eagle indicator is giving a positive signal, and we believe that only a decisive breakout from the downtrend channel could change the outlook for the euro in the coming days.
