As of yesterday, US stock indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 slipped 0.01%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.03%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.08%.
Equities traded in a narrow range after Donald Trump's meeting with the president of Ukraine and European leaders ended with a call for a summit with Russia.
Today, European stock index futures rose 0.2% after leaders from the US, Ukraine, Europe, and NATO reported progress in ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine. Oil dropped 0.8% on speculation that a ceasefire could lead to increased Russian supply. Asian indices were flat, while mainland Chinese stocks hovered near a decade high. Japanese government bond futures extended their decline after a 20-year bond auction drew weak demand.
US index futures slipped 0.2%, while Treasuries held steady after S&P Global Ratings affirmed the US long-term rating at AA+ and the short-term rating at A-1+. The dollar was little changed.
Markets cautiously welcomed the peace process in Ukraine after Trump urged Vladimir Putin to begin planning a summit with Volodymyr Zelensky. For investors weary of geopolitical uncertainty, this appeared as a glimmer of hope for de-escalation and regional stability. Still, optimism remained restrained. Analysts warned of numerous obstacles to a real settlement, including mistrust between the parties, disputes over key issues such as Donbas and Crimea, and the potential influence of outside players — all of which present significant risks to the peace process.
Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium, which begins Thursday in Wyoming. For now, capital is standing on the sidelines, awaiting a new signal that could propel markets to fresh highs. That signal may come from Jerome Powell hinting at a September rate cut.
Powell is also expected to outline a new Fed policy framework — the strategy it will use to pursue its inflation and employment goals. He may drop hints about the Fed's plans ahead of the September monetary policy meeting.
Swaps currently show about an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month, with two cuts fully priced in by year-end.
As for the S&P 500 technical picture, the bulls' main task today is to break through immediate resistance at $6,441. A breakout here could pave the way for a move to $6,457. Equally important for buyers will be control over $6,473, which would strengthen their positions. On the downside, in case of reduced risk appetite, buyers must defend $6,428. A break below would quickly push the index down to $6,414 and open the road toward $6,400.
