Thus, Cook may become the second Federal Reserve governor to "voluntarily and without coercion" leave her post before the end of her term. If this happens, there will already be four members of the current FOMC supporting Donald Trump's policy. Just two or three more would need to be removed, and the job would be done. After all, Trump doesn't care who runs the central bank. The main thing is that the Fed makes the decisions he wants. And what Trump wants from the Fed is already clear to virtually all market participants.
If my rather bold assumption is correct, then we should expect new accusations of misconduct or something similar. Pulte accused Cook of falsifying documents to obtain subsidized housing mortgages. I would not be surprised if other Fed governors also have "skeletons in the closet." And if they don't, then such skeletons will be invented, since Trump's politics have nothing in common with the notion of "fair play." But let's return to the Fed minutes.
The minutes stated that the FOMC Committee still adheres to its main goal — "controlling inflation and ensuring price stability." This means that priority will be explicitly given to fighting high inflation, rather than stimulating the labor market, which has shown dismal results over the past few months. Considering the events involving Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erica McEntarfer, I can no longer trust American statistics. I would not be surprised if the U.S. labor market is actually in good shape, but Trump has already begun to exert influence over the Statistics Bureau. Unattractive results were published for July, followed by "revisions" of decent data for June and May. For what purpose? To apply new pressure on the Fed, to justify in the public eye, Trump's demand for a rate cut. Admittedly, this is just speculation, but given Trump's methods, such a scenario cannot be ruled out.
In my view, the events around the Fed will only further undermine market confidence in the dollar. There is now no trust in either the official statistics or the FOMC, which may soon start "dancing to the tune" of the White House occupant. The situation for the U.S. currency is unfolding in the worst possible way. This fully corresponds to the current wave pattern on both instruments.
Wave pattern for EUR/USD:
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. The wave layout still entirely depends on the news background linked to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets of the trend segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. Accordingly, I continue to consider buying with targets around 1.1875, which corresponds to 161.8% Fibonacci, and higher. I assume that wave 4 is complete. Therefore, now is still a good time to buy.
Wave pattern for GBP/USD:
The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with a bullish, impulsive segment of the trend. Under Trump, the markets may face many more shocks and reversals, which could seriously affect the wave pattern, but at present, the working scenario remains intact. The targets of the bullish trend segment are now located around 1.4017. At this point, I assume that the downward wave 4 is complete. Wave 2 within wave 5 is also nearing completion. Therefore, I recommend buying with a target of 1.4017.
Main principles of my analysis:
- Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to play out and often bring changes.
- If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
- Absolute certainty about the direction of movement does not and cannot exist. Always remember protective Stop Loss orders.
- Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
