Yesterday, the euro closed with a 45-pip decline. The price broke below support at 1.1632, approaching Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole with a clear prospect of further decline toward 1.1495 and then 1.1392.
From a purely technical perspective, this downward move was necessary to prevent the Marlin oscillator from attempting a return into positive territory. Now it appears firmly anchored in the negative zone, confirming the market's intention to continue the decline. Such technical signals rarely emerge ahead of major events, which is why they always attract heightened attention. As before, we consider it likely that Powell will present the central bank's stance on interest rates in a restrained manner, consistent with the strategy of "cut in September and see the effect." Such a message would naturally serve as a stimulus for dollar buying.
On the H4 chart, the picture is entirely bearish. The price is declining below both indicator lines and below the 1.1632 level, having consolidated under it. The Marlin oscillator is firmly positioned in bearish territory. We await Powell's speech at 15:00 London time.
