Today, at the start of the week, EUR/JPY is trading with positive dynamics for the third consecutive day. The release of key German economic data had little impact on the pair's movement. Market participants are focused on upcoming events: the release of the GfK consumer confidence index and Germany's retail sales data later this week.
The IFO Business Climate Index in August rose to 89.0 from a revised 88.5 in July, exceeding the consensus forecast of 88.7. At the same time, the Current Conditions Index slightly decreased to 86.4 from 86.5, falling short of expectations of 86.7. The Expectations Index, on the other hand, showed confident growth to 91.6 from 90.7, also ahead of the forecast of 90.2.
On the ECB side, cautious signals continue: at the Jackson Hole symposium, Governing Council member Joachim Nagel reiterated that a significant shift in economic outlook would be required for the central bank to lower borrowing costs. ECB board member Martins Kazaks highlighted the Bank's transition into a monitoring phase, focusing on tracking data rather than active intervention.
EUR/JPY's growth may face resistance amid the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance on borrowing costs. The probability of monetary tightening supports the yen. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech at Jackson Hole strengthened hawkish expectations: he expressed confidence in improving conditions for future rate hikes, citing the spread of wage growth and tightening labor market conditions. According to Reuters, Ueda noted that wage increases are expanding from large corporations to small and medium-sized businesses and are likely to continue accelerating as the labor market tightens.
From a technical perspective, last week's breakout above the 200-SMA on the four-hour chart favors the bulls. Oscillators on the same chart are also positive. On a decline, the pair will find support at the 50-SMA, below which lies the 200-SMA at the psychological level of 172.00. Failure to hold this level would shift the balance in favor of the bears.
Resistance is at 172.70; a breakout above it would quickly bring prices to the 173.00 level, followed by intermediate resistance at 173.25 and 173.60, on the way to the psychological level of 174.00.
