Tuesday Trade Review:
1H Chart of GBP/USD
On Tuesday, GBP/USD also traded lifelessly. During the day, we observed minimal gains for the British pound, which could theoretically have been related to the US Durable Goods Orders report or the "dismissal" of FOMC member Lisa Cook. However, the orders report was generally in line with expert forecasts, while Lisa Cook's "dismissal" only took place in Donald Trump's imagination, who still seems to think he can fire any employee who doesn't report to him. We've heard similar statements from the US president before. At the start of his second term, he suggested that Canada become the 51st US state and also stated that he wanted to take over Greenland. Thus, the market barely reacted to Tuesday's events. Formally, the new uptrend remains in place, but traders are not in a hurry to sell the dollar and buy the pound. After Jerome Powell's Friday speech, doubts about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have grown, so the market simply is not rushing to conclusions.
5M Chart of GBP/USD
On the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, several trading signals formed near the 1.3466–1.3475 area; however, volatility during the day was low, and no discernible intraday trend was evident. Therefore, any trading signal could deliver a maximum profit of 10–20 pips at best.
How to Trade on Wednesday:
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair indicates that the downward trend has ended and a new uptrend is underway. The fundamental and macroeconomic background has not become any more attractive for the dollar recently, suggesting that stronger gains are unlikely. Thus, as before, we are only looking north. Any news about a trade war escalation, de-escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, or Trump's pressure on the Fed would potentially mean a new fall for the US currency.
On Wednesday, GBP/USD may continue to fall as it has once again consolidated below the 1.3466–1.3475 area. At the same time, the overall technical picture on the hourly chart points to a more likely growth. For long positions, a new consolidation above the 1.3466–1.3475 area is required.
On the 5-minute timeframe, you can currently trade levels: 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3466–1.3475, 1.3518–1.3532, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763. For Wednesday, there are no important UK or US data or events scheduled, so trading today could be as dull and uneventful as possible.
Core Trading System Rules:
- Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
- False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
- Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
- Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
- MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
- Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
- Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.
Key Chart Elements:
Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.
Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.
Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.
Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
