Trade analysis and tips for trading the euro
The price test at 1.1674 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro and resulting in a 15-point rise.
In the second half of the day, data will be published on the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, U.S. personal income and spending, as well as the goods trade balance. Market participants and analysts always closely examine these reports. The PCE index is considered by the Federal Reserve as the primary inflation indicator. Its trajectory will help determine how effectively current monetary policy measures are containing price growth. A slowdown in PCE growth could signal weakening inflationary pressure, which in turn may influence the Fed's future rate decisions. A sharp decline in inflation would almost certainly confirm a September rate cut.
The trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods. A widening trade deficit may negatively impact economic growth, while a narrowing deficit could support the economy. These figures are also important for assessing the competitiveness of U.S. producers on the global market.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches around 1.1679 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1728. At 1.1728, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point move from the entry point. A strong euro rally can be expected after weak U.S. statistics.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1655 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1679 and 1.1728 can then be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1655 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1614, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move from the level). Selling pressure will return today if the statistics are strong.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1679 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1655 and 1.1614 can then be expected.
What's on the chart:
- Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line – approximate price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line – approximate price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember: for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is, from the start, a losing strategy for intraday traders.
