EUR/USD
After yesterday's spike in yields on European government bonds, the drop in the EuroStoxx50 stock index by 1.41% (DAX -2.29%), and the euro's fall by 0.67% with the perfect backdrop of a political crisis in France, it's becoming clear that a new financial crisis is starting right here—in Europe. We wrote about this on August 19 and were only waiting for the Fed to cut rates. But the market didn't wait. Maybe it's for the best, since euro buying volume had been declining over the last week—the "euro-optimists" hype suddenly subsided. Yesterday's sales volume ranked just below July 30, when the euro dropped 1.21%.
The yield on French 5-year bonds reached 2.885%, a level last seen in December 2008. Technically, it could rise to the March 2008 support level of 3.38%. If that level is breached, a repeat of the crisis pattern from that time could occur—yields might climb to 4.94%.
What about the US Manufacturing PMI? Quite good. The indicators came out slightly below forecasts but better than July: 53.0 versus 49.8 on the Markit estimate and 48.7 versus 48.0 on the ISM estimate.
On the daily chart, price is breaking below the support level at 1.1632; the Marlin oscillator has entered the downtrend territory. A target of 1.1495 is now opening up for the price. It seems likely the Nonfarm payrolls data will also not disappoint.
On the 4-hour chart, the price quickly retested the MACD line (red arrow) and dropped below the 1.1632 level. Marlin is in the negative zone. Now, all that's left is for the price to settle below the broken support.
