For GBP/USD, the wave pattern continues to indicate the development of a bullish impulse wave structure. The picture is almost identical to EUR/USD since the dollar remains the only real "culprit." Demand for it is declining across the market (in the medium term), which is why many instruments are showing nearly the same dynamics. At this point, wave 4 is assumed to be completed. If so, the rise of the instrument will continue within impulse wave 5. Wave 4 could still take a five-wave form, but this is not the most likely scenario.
It should be remembered that much in the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies — and not only trade policy. From time to time, some decent news comes out of America, but the market constantly keeps in mind the full economic uncertainty, Trump's contradictory decisions and statements, and the hostile, protectionist stance of the White House. Global tensions are rising and, as I mentioned, the dollar remains the main "culprit," which is why it keeps taking all the hits.
The GBP/USD rate barely moved throughout Wednesday, even as news poured in. Leaving aside the economic data already released in the EU and U.S. (the U.K. calendar is empty this week), there was also news about Donald Trump's tariffs: yet another court overturned them — and yet again left them in effect. It sounds like a pun, but that's how it is. A federal appellate court ruled that Trump had no right to impose tariffs on entire industries and countries under the 1977 Emergency Powers Act, a law that no U.S. president had ever used to levy import tariffs. However, let's recall that the Trade Court also found nearly all of Trump's tariffs unlawful, which didn't stop him from appealing. Trump also appealed the appellate court's decision — this time to the Supreme Court. Furthermore, the White House asked the Supreme Court to allow the tariffs to remain in place until a final ruling is issued. Litigation in America can take months, and the appellate court ultimately did not cancel or even suspend the tariffs. It only ruled them unlawful.
I consider everything happening in the U.S. to be contradictory. Now the fate of the trade war will be decided by the Supreme Court, and I am curious about one thing: will the Supreme Court also rule the tariffs unlawful but still leave them in force? If so, where will Trump appeal next? Either way, the tariffs have not been canceled — they remain in effect, which does not add optimism for sellers.
General conclusions.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with a bullish impulse section of the trend. Under Donald Trump, markets may face many more shocks and reversals that could seriously affect the wave structure, but for now, the working scenario remains intact. The targets for the bullish section are now near 1.4017. At this point, I assume that the corrective wave 4 has been completed. Wave 2 in 5 may also be completed or close to completion. Therefore, I recommend buying with a target at 1.4017.
Key principles of my analysis:
- Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.
- If you are not confident about the market situation, it is better not to enter.
- There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of movement. Always remember protective Stop Loss orders.
- Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.
