On Thursday, the British pound broke above the MACD line resistance and consolidated above it. However, two factors prevent us from adopting a bullish outlook as the main scenario: the very weak growth of the Marlin oscillator and the proximity of the key event of the autumn—the upcoming Fed monetary policy decision next week.
If the mass investor is wrong about the market expecting three rate cuts by year-end—and given that the September meeting is extended and features individual FOMC member rate projections—we could see GBP fall to the 1.3253 level (or even 1.3140) in the days immediately following the Fed meeting. For now, we wait. A rise toward 1.3700—the upper boundary of the long-term price channel on the weekly chart—is considered an alternative scenario. But even in this case, unless there is a sustained move above this level, such growth will be a variation of the primary bearish scenario.
A similar situation can be seen on the four-hour chart: price is developing above the indicator lines, but the Marlin oscillator is weakening and almost ready to enter negative territory. Most likely, price views the range of 1.3482 (MACD line)–1.3589 as suitable for sideways movement while awaiting the Fed meeting. A consolidation below the MACD line would be an early bearish signal from the market.
