The pair is under pressure not of a fundamental but of a technical nature. After the Fed decided at its meeting to cut the key interest rate by 0.25%, the market began taking profits from previous dollar sales, including against the euro. This trend may locally continue amid Europe's negative economic problems, as well as the effective plundering by the US and its involvement in the war in Ukraine.
From a technical standpoint, the pair is trading below the resistance level of 1.1775, which may hold, meaning there is a chance of further decline until profit-taking from earlier dollar sales is fully completed. However, this decline will be limited, as two more Fed rate cuts are expected before year-end.
Technical picture and trading idea:
The price is below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, below the SMA 5 and SMA 14, which have previously crossed, generating a sell signal. RSI is moving below the 50% level, reinforcing the bearish trend. Stochastic indicators are turning downward above the oversold zone.
A consolidation of the pair below 1.1775 may encourage a limited decline toward 1.1695. A level for selling could be considered at 1.1748.
