Dark times are ahead for EUR/USD traders—and for all dollar-based pairs. The continued U.S. government shutdown has halted the release of official economic data. For instance, last week was supposed to bring September's Nonfarm Payrolls numbers, but traders had to settle for the ADP report, which does not cover government employees or several other non-agricultural sectors.
This week, key inflation metrics (CPI/PPI) are scheduled for release, but they are unlikely to be published unless Congress unexpectedly reopens the government. If the shutdown continues—which remains the most likely scenario—EUR/USD traders will be forced to operate in a state of information vacuum. Or rather, a diet. Even with the shutdown, the upcoming week's economic calendar isn't entirely blank. Let's review the most important events and releases.
Monday
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is expected to address the audience. She may comment on the latest reports on inflation growth across the eurozone. In Germany, the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose to 2.4% YoY—the highest since December of the previous year. This is the second consecutive monthly increase. The Harmonised Index (EU Harmonised CPI) also climbed to 2.4%—a peak since February. Eurozone-wide CPI rose to 2.2% YoY, while core CPI remained steady at 2.3%, confirming that inflation is now exceeding the ECB's target. This gives the central bank justification to maintain its policy pause. Lagarde may reinforce this view, offering background support to the euro.
Monday will also see the release of the Sentix Investor Confidence Index. Based on investor and analyst surveys, readings above zero reflect optimism, while readings below zero indicate pessimism. The index briefly turned positive in July (for the first time since July of last year), then slipped again to -3.7 in August and -9.2 in September. A mild increase to -7.5 is forecasted for October. The euro may get a boost only if the index unexpectedly turns positive again.
Tuesday
During the European session, German factory orders data will be released. This figure has declined for three consecutive months, most recently falling to -3.4% YoY. Forecasts suggest August will see a rebound to +1.2%, which could support the euro. Though it is a secondary macro indicator, in the current context it could spark volatility—especially if it surprises to the upside.
During the U.S. session, three Federal Reserve officials will speak: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (non-voting this year), Fed Governor Michelle Bowman (a voting member), and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. Bowman is the most dovish among them and has consistently warned about a cooling labor market. Given the weak ADP report, which showed a 32,000 drop in employment for September, she may repeat similar concerns.
Wednesday
The Fed's minutes from the September meeting will be published. Typically, these documents have a limited market impact, as they are released two weeks after the meeting and often lose relevance. However, this set of minutes may prove different. The updated dot plot revealed a wide range of views: nine officials anticipated a 50-basis-point rate cut by year-end, two forecasted a 25-basis-point cut, and one (Stephen Miran) projected a 75-basis-point cut. Meanwhile, six members expected no change, and one even forecasted a hike.
Given this diversity, the Fed minutes could provoke notable movement in EUR/USD if the language appears particularly hawkish or dovish.
Also on Wednesday, two more Fed members will speak: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (a voting member) and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr (also a voting member). Both have previously taken a cautious stance, emphasizing the risks of inflation. Unless they shift tone—which is unlikely—their comments should provide background support for the dollar.
Thursday
The ECB will release minutes from its September meeting. At that meeting, the central bank firmly signaled that rates would stay at current levels for the foreseeable future. Lagarde stated that disinflation in the eurozone has "concluded," and that current inflation is "where we want it." Other ECB officials have echoed this stance. Last week's CPI data further solidified this position. Therefore, it's unlikely that the ECB minutes will trigger volatility in EUR/USD.
However, all eyes will be on Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to speak during the U.S. session. His comments could ignite sharp price moves in major dollar pairs. He may address recent macro data—such as ISM indices, which have raised more questions than answers. The manufacturing ISM index rose to 49.1 (still in contraction), while the services ISM unexpectedly dropped to 50.0 (right on the edge of expansion). Powell may also comment on the ADP report, especially if the NFP data is still missing at that time. His speech is unquestionably the central—and most important—scheduled event of the week.
Friday
All eyes will turn to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey. In this information-starved environment (assuming the shutdown is still in effect), these survey results could cause significant volatility—especially if they diverge substantially from forecasts.
The October index is expected at 54.6, down from 55.1 in the previous month. The trend is noteworthy: sentiment has declined for two consecutive months, and if October hits the forecast, it would mark a third straight decline.
Equally important are one-year inflation expectations published by the University of Michigan. From July through September, the indicator has ranged between 4.5% and 4.8%. If expectations rise sharply in October (unfortunately, no preliminary forecasts are available), the dollar could gain, provided the sentiment index also surprises to the upside.
Conclusion
In summary, the events and releases mentioned are scheduled but depend heavily on whether the U.S. shutdown continues. These will shape market tone, while the shutdown itself will act as persistent background pressure on the greenback. That's the "base case" scenario. However, if Senate Republicans can persuade 8–9 Democrats to support a budget, Congress will reopen the government. That would trigger the release of key employment (NFP) and inflation (CPI/PPI) reports. All other fundamental drivers—except Powell's speech—will take a back seat.
From a technical standpoint, the pair on the D1 timeframe is trading between the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands indicator, above the Ichimoku Kumo cloud, and between the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. This setup still reflects uncertainty. Long positions become relevant only if EUR/USD breaks above resistance at 1.1750 (the middle Bollinger Band on D1). The next bullish targets are 1.1800 (upper boundary of the Kumo on H4) and 1.1850 (upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart).
