FX.co ★ What to Watch on October 9: Fundamental Analysis for Beginners

Macroeconomic Report Overview:

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday, and all of them are secondary in nature. In Germany, import, export, and trade balance data will be released; however, these figures are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on trader sentiment.

It may seem like yesterday's disappointing industrial production report from Germany triggered the euro's decline, but in reality, the euro stopped falling right after that data was published. Economic calendars for the UK, the Eurozone, and the U.S. remain largely empty today.

Fundamental Events Breakdown:

There is only one major fundamental event on Thursday — but it is a significant one. Jerome Powell's speech always carries weight in the market, and under current conditions, it becomes particularly meaningful.

The market is eagerly awaiting some clarity on how the Federal Reserve intends to assess the economic outlook and decide on interest rates at the end-of-month meeting. Yesterday, the minutes from the September FOMC meeting were released, where many officials expressed support for further monetary easing.

But in September, the United States was not in a government shutdown. Now, even core economic indicators are not being published. Under such circumstances, the Fed may very well take a wait-and-see approach: "no data — no decision."

In short, there are many questions for Powell, and his remarks are essentially the only high-impact event of the trading week.

General Conclusions:

As we approach the latter part of the trading week, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD may continue to trade erratically and illogically. Price movements have been chaotic throughout the week, and Powell's speech may only intensify the uncertainty.

For novice traders, it is still possible to trade from the nearest key levels or zones; however, it's essential to keep in mind that current market conditions are not ideal for clean or consistent setups. Caution and proper risk management are advised.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by how quickly it forms (a bounce or breakout). The faster the signal forms, the stronger it is.
2. If two or more false trades occur around a particular level, that level should be ignored for future signals.
3. In a sideways market (flat), any pair may generate many false signals — or none at all. In such a case, it's better to step away from trading at the first signs of consolidation.
4. Trades should be executed between the start of the European session and the midpoint of the U.S. session. All trades should be manually closed thereafter.
5. On the 1-hour timeframe, only trade MACD signals when volatility is high and a trendline or trend channel confirms the trend.
6. If two levels are located very close together (within 5–20 pips), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Once a trade moves 15-20 pips in the intended direction, set your Stop Loss to break even.

Chart Annotations:

• Support and resistance levels are target areas for potential buy or sell entries. Use them to set Take Profit levels.
• Red lines indicate trend channels or trendlines that reflect the current direction of the market. They help determine preferred trade direction.
• MACD (14,22,3): The histogram and signal line can be used for additional confirmation of trade direction.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the economic calendar) can heavily influence currency pair movement. During their release, you should trade with extra caution or exit the market entirely to avoid sharp price swings against your position.

For beginners in forex trading: remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are essential for long-term success in trading.