On Friday, the Australian dollar fell by 79 pips, apparently in response to a 4.24% drop in WTI crude oil. However, oil recovered by 1.24% over the weekend, leading AUD/USD to start the new trading week with a gap.
Currently, the price is fluctuating within a range between the support level at 0.6450 and the resistance marked by the MACD line at 0.6560. This is a zone of uncertainty—a drifting range. In fact, it is part of an even broader range between 0.6374 and 0.6668, where the pair has been consolidating since mid-April. Nonetheless, the price gap left by Monday's open needs to be closed, which creates bearish pressure within the range. A confirmed move below the 0.6450 support level will open the way for a decline toward 0.6374. Conversely, a breakout above 0.6560 will target 0.6668, though this scenario can only be realized if the intermediate resistance at 0.6627 is also cleared.
On the four-hour timeframe, the MACD line is located very close to its daily timeframe counterpart. A break and consolidation above these intersecting lines may trigger an impulsive rally toward the first target at 0.6627. However, this bullish setup may be hindered by the weakness of the Marlin oscillator.
At the moment, Marlin is rising ahead of price, and once it touches the zero line—the boundary of bullish territory—it may reverse downward. If this occurs, price action may stall and fail to reach the MACD line. We await further developments. The main movement may happen tomorrow.
