Macroeconomic Data Overview:
There are no macroeconomic releases scheduled for Monday. As a result, we are likely to see a typical "quiet Monday" with low volatility and no intraday trend movement. However, we remind you that on Friday, Donald Trump announced a new round of 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports, and traders had very little time to price in this event. Therefore, today the U.S. dollar may continue to weaken.
Fundamental Events Overview:
Two fundamental events are scheduled for today:
- In the United States: a speech by Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Committee member Lawrence Paulson
- In the Eurozone: a speech by European Central Bank representative Claudia Buch
However, it's important to keep in mind that last week Jerome Powell already addressed the market and made it clear to traders: The Fed will continue to make decisions based on macroeconomic data, and another interest rate cut is not guaranteed. Previously, Powell expressed the same rhetoric. He does not rule out two rate cuts before the end of the year, but he does not promise them either.
How the Fed will decide at the end of October—especially if the government shutdown is still in effect—remains unknown, as no key reports on inflation, unemployment, or labor market conditions have been released.
As for the ECB, there is no uncertainty whatsoever. Christine Lagarde has spoken five or six times over the past two weeks, clearly stating that any adjustments to monetary policy should not be expected in the near future.
Therefore, there is no intrigue whatsoever in today's speeches by central bank officials from either side.
General Conclusions:
On the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to trade chaotically and illogically. So far, we have mostly seen a decline in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with no solid explanations. However, Trump once again steps in. Today, the euro may continue pushing higher toward 1.1655–1.1666, and the British pound toward 1.3413–1.3421.
Basic Rules of the Trading System:
- Signal strength is determined by how quickly it forms (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
- If two or more false signals appear near the same level, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
- In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals—or none at all. At the first signs of flat, consider suspending trading.
- Trades should be opened during the European session and held until mid-U.S. session. After that, all positions should be closed manually.
- On the hourly timeframe, MACD signals should only be used when good volatility and a trend are confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
- If two levels are too close together (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.
- After the price moves 15-20 pips in the right direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.
What's on the Charts:
- Support and resistance levels – targets for opening long or short trades. Take Profit points can be set near these levels.
- Red lines – trendlines or channels indicating the current trend and directional bias.
- MACD Indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line used as a supplementary signal source.
Important speeches and economic releases (always listed in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency movement. Traders should be especially cautious or exit positions before such events to avoid sudden price reversals.
Beginner traders in the forex market must remember: not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and applying sound money management principles are keys to long-term success in trading.
