On Monday, the GBP/JPY pair tried to attract some buyer interest; however, no further upward movement followed. Spot prices remain within Friday's trading range, showing little change during the day due to low liquidity caused by a public holiday in Japan.
The Japanese yen continues to remain under pressure due to uncertainty surrounding a possible Bank of Japan rate hike. This uncertainty serves as a key factor supporting the GBP/JPY pair. Investors generally believe that the BoJ will be able to resist further policy tightening, amid speculation that Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi intends to implement aggressive fiscal spending. Moreover, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated last week that he has no specific plans or timeline for the next rate increase. These factors, along with the overall bullish sentiment in global markets, are contributing to the yen's weak start to the week.
On the British pound's side, the Bank of England is set to announce its interest rate decision on Thursday. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut currently stands at about one in three, while the likelihood of a rate reduction by the end of the year is around 68%. Falling inflation and fiscal measures provide more room for monetary policy easing. Additionally, slowing wage growth and rising unemployment have once again increased expectations of a near-term rate cut. These factors will play a key role in the short-term dynamics of the pound and have a notable impact on the GBP/JPY pair. At the same time, the underlying fundamental backdrop suggests that any new upward move is likely to face renewed selling pressure.
From a technical standpoint, oscillators on the daily chart remain positive; however, the pair is not yet ready for a sustained rally. Only a break above the psychological level of 203.00 would give the bulls a chance for further upside. For now, prices are trading below the confluence of the 9- and 14-day EMAs, meaning that any rise will likely encounter selling pressure. Support: 202.00; Resistance: 202.60.
Below is a table showing the percentage changes in the Japanese yen exchange rate against major currencies over the past seven days. During this period, the Japanese yen showed the greatest strength against the British pound.
