While many experts cautiously comment on the dismal situation in the crypto market, pointing out that Bitcoin's uptrend will be broken if it falls below $100,000 and that we will not see any "moon" rally anytime soon, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise believes that retail investors have already reached a "point of maximum despair," which often precedes a market bottom.
Matt Hougan expresses confidence in a near-term recovery. His optimism is based on an analysis of historical data and current market trends. He notes that periods of "peak despair" are often accompanied by significant declines in trading volumes and a decrease in interest from retail investors. However, once the weakest players exit the market, conditions become favorable for consolidation and subsequent growth.
Hougan's forecast of Bitcoin reaching $120,000 to $150,000 by the end of the year is quite bold, but he emphasizes that this scenario is realistic given the potential for institutional adoption and the ongoing rise in the popularity of cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class. He points out that a growing number of large companies and financial institutions are showing interest in Bitcoin, which could lead to a significant influx of capital into the market.
However, one thing is clear: the next bullish sequence in the crypto market will be supported by new inflows into spot ETFs; without them, the market will certainly struggle to recover. It's important to remember that forecasts are merely assumptions based on current data and analysis, and the cryptocurrency market remains volatile and unpredictable. Traders should conduct their own research and make decisions based on their individual risk tolerance and investment goals. Nevertheless, Hoggan's estimates add a sense of optimism and instil hope for a possible market recovery in the near future.
Trading recommendations
From a technical viewpoint, Bitcoin buyers are currently aiming to reclaim the $103,400 level, which would open a direct path to $106,100; from there, it's just a short distance to $108,800. The most distant target will be the high around $111,300; surpassing this level would indicate attempts to return to a bullish market. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at the $99,400 level. A return of the trading instrument below this area could swiftly push BTC down to around $95,900, with the further target in the $92,200 area.
As for Ethereum's technical outlook, an obvious consolidation above the $3,359 level opens a direct route to $3,505. The most distant target will be the high around $3,664. Once this level is surpassed, this would indicate a strengthening bullish market and robust buyer interest. Should Ethereum decline, I anticipate buyers at the $3,139 level. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly drop ETH to around $2,950, with the further target being the $2,756 region.
Chart indicators
- Red indicators represent support and resistance levels, where a slowdown or active price increase is expected.
- Green represents the 50-day moving average.
- Blue indicates the 100-day moving average.
- Light green signifies the 200-day moving average.
Crossovers or tests of the moving averages usually halt or set the market's momentum.
