Bitcoin rose to $107,500 today, then quickly fell back to around $105,000. It seems that $105,000 is currently a balanced midpoint, above which there are significantly fewer buyers. Consolidation is necessary for further growth, so there are no serious concerns regarding the bullish market that began last weekend.
Today, an interesting report from CryptoQuant caught my eye, highlighting a sharp increase in spot market demand for BTC. This is corroborated by the increase in Bitcoin outflows from centralized exchanges. Large investors appear to be actively absorbing the available supply, withdrawing coins to cold wallets for long-term storage. Such a trend usually indicates bullish sentiment in the market, as a reduction in the available supply of BTC exerts upward pressure on the price.
However, it is important to remember that the crypto market is subject to high volatility, and the current situation does not guarantee further growth. Macroeconomic factors such as changes in interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical conditions also play a significant role in Bitcoin's price impact. The upcoming vote in the U.S. House of Representatives on a bill that could end the longest shutdown in U.S. history may serve as the main catalyst for growth in the cryptocurrency market.
Regarding intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act based on any major dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the bullish market in the medium term, which remains in play.
As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.
Bitcoin
Buying Scenario
- Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today if it reaches the entry point around $105,500, targeting growth to the $106,700 level. Around $106,700, I will exit the buys and sell immediately on the bounce. Before a breakout buy, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
- Scenario #2: Buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary at $104,600 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $105,500 and $106,700.
Selling Scenario
- Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today if it reaches the entry point around $104,500, targeting a drop to $103,400. Around $103,400, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the bounce. Before a breakout sell, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
- Scenario #2: Sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary at $105,500 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $104,500 and $103,400.
Ethereum
Buying Scenario
- Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today if it reaches the entry point around $3,572, targeting growth to the $3,642 level. Around $3,642, I will exit the buys and sell immediately on the bounce. Before a breakout buy, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
- Scenario #2: Buy Ethereum from the lower boundary at $3,525 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $3,572 and $3,642.
Selling Scenario
- Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today if it reaches the entry point around $3,525, targeting a drop to $3,455. Around $3,455, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the bounce. Before a breakout sell, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
- Scenario #2: Sell Ethereum from the upper boundary at $3,572 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $3,525 and $3,455.
