Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen
The price test at 154.81 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 154.36.
Today, in the second half of the day, no key U.S. economic data releases are scheduled, so market participants' attention will be focused on speeches by members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The remarks from Musalem and Hammack are expected to be an important source of insight into the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.
It's essential to remember that FOMC officials' statements often contain subtle signals aimed at shaping market expectations. Traders should therefore pay close attention to the tone, delivery, and context of their comments. Considering that the Japanese yen has recently been performing very weakly against the U.S. dollar, a hawkish stance from Fed officials could reinforce the ongoing bullish trend in the USD/JPY pair.
As for intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2 below.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today around the 154.66 level (green line on the chart) with a target of 154.98 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 154.98, I will exit long positions and open short trades in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point reversal from the entry level. A rise in the pair can be expected as part of the ongoing bullish trend.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the 154.34 level is tested twice in a row while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. In this case, a rise toward 154.66 and 154.98 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price breaks below 154.34 (red line on the chart), which should trigger a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 153.84, where I will exit short positions and open buy trades in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25-point rebound. Selling pressure on the pair is unlikely to persist today. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the 154.66 level is tested twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 154.34 and 153.84 can then be expected.
Chart Legend:
- Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
- Thick green line – approximate level for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, since further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
- Thick red line – approximate level for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD indicator – when entering the market, rely on overbought and oversold zones.
Important Note for Beginner Traders:
Beginner traders in the Forex market should be extremely careful when making trading decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings.
If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit — especially if you don't apply proper money management and trade large positions.
And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear and structured trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market movements are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.
