Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Japanese Yen
The test of the 154.63 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. A second test of 154.63, with the MACD in the overbought zone, triggered Scenario No. 2 for selling the dollar, though it did not lead to a significant decline in the pair.
In the second half of the day, the focus will be on speeches by FOMC members Lorie K. Logan and Raphael Bostic. A hawkish stance on rates could help the USD/JPY pair rise. Statements by senior Federal Reserve officials always attract close market attention, as they provide insight into the current state of the economy and potential future monetary policy actions. In this case, statements from Logan and Bostic—especially if they are hawkish, indicating the need to keep rates high to combat inflation—could provide significant support to the U.S. dollar. USD/JPY, which is directly influenced by the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, is particularly sensitive to changes in Fed rhetoric. If Logan and Bostic signal that the Fed does not intend to abandon a strict monetary policy, it could trigger further dollar strength against the yen.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mostly rely on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 154.81 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 155.15 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 155.15, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal from the level). The pair's rise can be expected to continue within the bullish trend.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 154.61 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 154.81 and 155.15 may then be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 154.61 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 154.21, where I will exit sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal from the level). Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to fall from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 154.81 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 154.61 and 154.21 may then be expected.
Chart Legend:
- Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
- Thick green line – suggested price for Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
- Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
- Thick red line – suggested price for Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
- MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones
Important
Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.
Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one provided above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
