Analysis of Transactions and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test at 155.04 coincided with a period when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.
A weak report on the U.S. ISM manufacturing index and the high likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates acted as catalysts for the Japanese yen's rise against the dollar. The published ISM manufacturing index data from the U.S. came in significantly below analysts' expectations, raising concerns about the slowing economic growth of the largest economy in the world. This weak report undermined investor confidence in the dollar's strength, making it a less attractive asset. At the same time, anticipation of the BoJ's interest rate hikes strengthened the yen, making it more appealing to investors seeking higher returns. The expected increase in Japan's interest rates signals a shift in monetary policy aimed at combating inflation and strengthening the national currency.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buying Scenarios
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 155.84 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 156.28 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 156.13, I intend to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 155.64 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise can be expected towards the opposite levels of 155.84 and 156.13.
Selling Scenarios
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it reaches 155.64 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 155.34, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 155.84 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 155.64 and 155.34.
What's on the Chart:
- Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
- Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
- Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
- Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
- MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.
