European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos stated on Monday that the current interest rate level remains acceptable and that policy will only be adjusted if the economic situation changes. According to him, both inflation dynamics and forecasts remain favorable, and no increases or decreases in rates are expected in the coming months; any changes will depend on incoming data. For the euro, this assessment is favorable, and the market interprets it as a strength of the European currency.
Preliminary inflation data for the eurozone in November confirms de Guindos's words.
Overall inflation rose from 2.1% year-on-year to 2.2%, while the core index remained at 2.4%, when a slight increase to 2.5% was expected. In any case, it should be noted that inflation is under control and there is no reason to reconsider the ECB's policy. The market reacted with a slight decrease in the euro exchange rate, which was quickly halted.
Regarding the U.S., the first serious report among those scheduled for this week turned out to be negative. The ISM Manufacturing Index fell in November from 48.7 to 48.2, with both the employment sub-index and the new orders sub-index declining as well, confirming deterioration in the labor market. The negative trend has persisted for nine consecutive months, and internal demand is showing clear signs of weakening. For the Federal Reserve, this situation clearly favors a "dovish" decision at the upcoming meeting on December 10.
This week, two missed CFTC reports from October 24 and 31 will be published. While they are already outdated, it is worth noting that the last three reports showed no significant dynamics favoring the dollar, and speculative positioning remains firmly in favor of the euro, making it unlikely that anything substantial will change this week. The calculated price remains above the long-term average, though the upward momentum is weaker.
Last week, we noted that the euro's chances of strengthening had increased again, with EUR/USD stabilizing above the 1.1580/90 zone, which we saw as the nearest target. The bullish momentum, however, persists, and we expect an attempt to rise to 1.1650/70 as the next target, followed by 1.1730. The euro could decline under the influence of external factors, such as a sharp increase in demand for safe-haven assets, but there are currently no grounds for such a turn.
