Australia's GDP grew by 2.1% year-on-year in the third quarter, a result slightly below expectations but the highest in the past two years. The growth was slightly weaker than the anticipated 2.2%, mainly due to companies significantly reducing their inventory levels, which may provide a further boost to GDP in the next quarter as output increases.
Domestic demand accounted for 1.1% of the overall growth, while private investments rose at the fastest pace since March 2021. The only significant downside was the negative dynamics in external trade, where import growth outpaced export growth.
Ahead of the GDP data publication, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock warned that the economy had likely reached its potential growth limit, while inflation remains above the bank's target. The board is expected to take action amid renewed price pressures.
With inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-on-year in October, the threat of an RBA response may take concrete bullish forms, as rising prices coincide with economic growth, providing the RBA with an excellent opportunity to act quickly. After the last RBA meeting, where rates were held steady, there was a view that the bank was "cautious about further cuts." However, the situation has changed so much that a rate cut is no longer on the table. On the contrary, voices advocating a rate hike at the upcoming December 9 meeting are already being heard. The market is responding accordingly, with the yield on 10-year Australian bonds being just one step away from a two-year high of 4.72%.
The overall picture for the Australian dollar is becoming increasingly bullish.
At the same time, the outlook for the dollar is changing in the opposite direction. Following a weak ISM report from the manufacturing sector, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10 has risen to 89%. On Wednesday, the ADP employment report for the private sector in November was also unexpectedly weak, showing a loss of 32,000 jobs (forecast was +5,000). On late Wednesday, the ISM services index is scheduled to be released, with expectations at 54.8. If it turns out to be weaker than anticipated (and all signs point to this), the dollar will likely react with a strong intraday decline.
The calculated price moved slightly above the long-term average, indicating the AUD's readiness to continue its upward trajectory.
The AUD/USD pair has settled above the 0.6530/50 zone, with a strong momentum, and we are expecting continued growth toward the nearest target of 0.6620/30. Confidence in the AUD moving higher has strengthened, and the next target is the local high at 0.6708. In any case, there are fewer signs that the pair is ready to reverse back down after the past week.
