Review of Macroeconomic Reports:
There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. The holidays continue. At the beginning of last week, the market moved somewhat, but then it came to a complete standstill. This week, some activity may also be present on Monday and Tuesday, but by Wednesday, there will be a shortened trading day and New Year celebrations, with the market closing on Thursday, and Friday will be the last day of the holiday week. Therefore, we shouldn't expect an abundance of events and movements over the next five days.
Review of Fundamental Events:
No fundamental events are scheduled for Monday. Governments and central banks have gone on holiday due to Christmas and New Year, so news will start coming in next year. The first interesting events are planned for January 5.
General Conclusions:
During the first trading day of the New Year week, both currency pairs may trade sluggishly. Short-term trends for both currency pairs remain upward, while the market is fully engaged in holiday celebrations. The "thin market" factor may lead to trend movements, but this cannot be predicted. We would expect a low-volatility flat today.
Key Rules of the Trading System:
- The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
- If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
- In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
- Trades are opened during the time between the start of the European session and mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
- On the hourly timeframe, using signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility exists, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
- If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as an area of support or resistance.
- After moving 15-20 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.
Chart Explanations:
- Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
- Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction to trade.
- MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.
Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is crucial to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and implementing sound money management are keys to successful long-term trading.
