Trade review and trading advice for the Japanese yen
The test of the 159.07 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.
Next, we are expecting a very important U.S. Producer Price Index report, which serves as an indicator of inflation trends in the American economy. Actual figures coming in above forecasts may point to a possible acceleration in consumer price growth. Data weaker than expected could ease inflation concerns and lead to a more cautious approach by the Federal Reserve, further weakening demand for the dollar and allowing USD/JPY to continue its morning correction.
Retail sales data will help assess consumer activity, which is a key driver of U.S. economic growth. An increase in retail sales indicates a healthy economy, while a decline may signal a slowdown in economic development. In the case of poor figures, the dollar could fall even further against the yen.
The session will conclude with speeches by FOMC members, in particular Neel Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, and John Williams. Market participants will be looking for any hints of a change in the central bank's strategy regarding inflation, employment, and economic growth, which will affect the USD/JPY pair. Dovish comments from policymakers would negatively affect the pair's upward prospects.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the entry point around 158.90 is reached (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward the 159.29 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.29, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level). Continued growth of the pair can be expected in line with the prevailing trend.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 158.70 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 158.90 and 159.29 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below the 158.70 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 158.30 level, where I will exit short positions and also immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair may return today in the event of a dovish stance by the Fed.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 158.90 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 158.70 and 158.30 can be expected.
What's on the chart:
- Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
- Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
- Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
- Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
- MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
