De-escalation of the trade war? I wouldn't rush to conclusions. New Delhi is not Beijing and not Moscow. India had no desire to resist the US for a long time. As a result, New Delhi agreed to abandon purchases of Russian oil and... (surprise!) agreed to purchase oil from the US. The market can only guess what the true purpose of these tariffs was: the desire to end the war in Ukraine or the aim to sell more oil to those who do not wish to do so?
In my opinion, the answer to this question is obvious. I have repeatedly written that Trump first looks for a reason to impose new tariffs or sanctions, threats, or ultimatums, and that this reason typically appears noble and peace-promoting. However, behind this pretext lies a simple desire to profit. The American president targets a new victim on the world's political map, then concocts a justification, after which he offers a peaceful solution to the problem—buy more from the US, and there are no complaints.
And despite India's commitment to purchase oil from America worth hundreds of billions of dollars, the American tariffs remain in effect. Donald Trump canceled only the last package of 25% tariffs imposed "for sponsoring the war in Ukraine." The initial 18% tariff remained. This is what "business the American way" means. The US Treasury will receive a large amount of dollars from tariffs and from oil sales.
The US Supreme Court, as we remember, is the most just court in the world, and also... the fastest. If last year there were hopes that the Court would consider that the 1979 Emergency Powers Act contains no mention of the word "tariff," now that February has arrived, those hopes are fading. The Trump administration has repeatedly signaled that if the tariffs are canceled by the court, they will immediately be reimposed based on other laws. Therefore, it is likely that a thick point can be put on this issue. The dollar will continue to fall amid the White House's unprecedented, protectionist, and autocratic policies.
Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend. The policies of Trump and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the American currency. The targets for the current trend segment could extend to the 25-figure. At present, I believe that the instrument remains within the framework of a global wave 5; therefore, I expect an increase in quotes in the first half of 2026. However, in the short term, I anticipate a downward wave (or series of waves), as the structure a-b-c-d-e also looks complete. In the near future, my readers can look for areas and levels for new long positions with targets located around 1.2195 and 1.2367, corresponding to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci.
Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:
The wave pattern for GBP/USD appears quite clear. The five-wave upward structure has completed its formation, but the global wave 5 may take on a much more extended appearance. I believe that in the near future, we may observe the building of a corrective wave set, after which the upward trend will resume. Thus, in the coming weeks, I recommend looking for opportunities for new longs. In my opinion, under Trump, the British pound has every chance of reaching 1.45-1.50$. Trump himself welcomes a decline in the dollar's exchange rate. All his actions have a dual effect: lowering the dollar and addressing internal, external, trade, and geopolitical issues.
Key Principles of My Analysis:
- Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often carry changes.
- If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it's better not to enter.
- There is no such thing as 100% certainty about the direction of movement, and there never will be. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
- Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
