Apple: product launch and eSIM
Apple has scheduled a new product presentation for March 4 and is preparing a series of Mac line updates for H1 2026. New MacBook Pro and MacBook Air models are expected, along with a more affordable color-finished MacBook and upgraded iPads. For the mass market, Apple is planning an iPhone 17e, while the next major milestone (iPhone 18) could mark the beginning of a full transition to eSIM: rumors suggest European models may omit physical SIM trays altogether. Engineers plan to use the freed internal space to increase battery capacity — a direct technological solution that matters for users and supply chains alike.
Chips, investment and the reshuffling of AI alliances
The hardware market agenda is seeing a notable reshuffling of alliances: Sam Altman announced that OpenAI intends to source chips from Cerebras rather than Nvidia. Nvidia responded by cancelling a planned $100 billion investment in OpenAI. That decision may change the demand balance for specialized AI processors. For investors, it signals fierce competition in hardware supply and shows that supply chains and investment deals in the AI sector are being rapidly rethought.
Defense contracts and autonomous systems
SpaceX is entering a Pentagon competition to develop autonomous unmanned aerial systems, highlighting the trend of commercial space and aerospace firms integrating into defense programs. For the market, this is a potential source of contract growth and additional demand for components — from engines to communications systems and AI modules.
AI in China and new economic alliances
Alibaba announced a major upgrade to its Qwen 3.5 model, which the company says is six times cheaper to operate and eight times more efficient when processing large datasets compared with the previous generation. Competition for compute resources and cost savings will be a key factor in platform selection by customers worldwide.
India moves into the global innovation lead
India is turning to the UK for help developing offshore wind projects. London is ready to share technology and supply?chain know?how, while New Delhi offers scale and long?term demand. The parties also plan to work out financing models and local production, including elements for green hydrogen. For investors and manufacturers, this could mean expanded markets for European technologies and new export flows for Indian suppliers.
According to the French president, who is visiting India from February 17, India is not merely participating in global innovation — it is on track to become a leader. To illustrate his point, Emmanuel Macron listed CEOs of Indian origin who head major global corporations:
- CEO of Alphabet
- CEO of Microsoft
- CEO of IBM
- CEO of Adobe
- CEO of Palo Alto Networks
- CEO of Novartis
This roster underscores the shifted landscape of executive talent and innovation.
This week: another reminder that AI remains the central market theme
And not only that. Against the backdrop of technological shifts, the Fed has joined the discussion about AI. Michael Barr publicly questioned whether AI alone will solve rate issues. Mary Daly called for more careful study of the tech's impact. This contrasts with one of the key voices — Kevin Warsh — who sees AI as a factor that could justify monetary easing. Meanwhile, investors are moving from hypotheses about a "pure AI future" to demanding demonstrable monetization: not stories about potential, but numbers in financial reports.
Are markets tired of AI promises?
The era of hyper?optimism is over — investors are no longer buying the whole AI dream unquestioningly and are demanding proven profitability. The market signals clearly: there is less room for "just a good story." Even strong quarterly revenue won't sustain a paper premium if management is cautious in its guidance or if the next phase of growth requires disproportionate capital expenditures. For software developers, that means a shift in the rules of the game. AI was sold as a cost?saver:
- fewer support staff
- faster development
- cheaper releases
Now the question has changed from "does AI do the job better?" to "will AI eat parts of the product itself?" Especially modules that are not the service's core but only enhance convenience. If product functions are easily replicated by an AI platform, buyers will prefer the outcome — or will simply embed the solution into their own ecosystem. Monetization models are changing, too. Subscription, licensing fees and contract length — traditional revenue sources for vendors — may give way to "pay?for?outcome" logic:
- payment for reduced processing time
- for lower customer churn
- or for conversion uplift
For companies that grew on license sales, this is a painful transformation — they must now prove not only technological uniqueness but measurable contributions to clients' operational KPIs. Previously, market protection was built on integrations, user habits and interface moats. Today, competition is expanding: major AI platforms can "chisel off" discrete features and move them into broader services. As a result, many software companies find themselves in a self?inflicted risk: by promoting AI as a competitive advantag,e they also make it easier for customers to develop in?house solutions or buy cheaper modules from rivals.
Capital shift is not a death sentence for the sector, but a redistribution of opportunity. As one Private Bank analyst put it, the recent sell?off in software is not the "end of the theme" but a sign of market expansion: money is leaving narrow bets on hypothetical universal monetization of AI and moving into more applied, earthy segments — industry, infrastructure and operational solutions with transparent economics. Who wins? Infrastructure, proven use cases and margin champions. There are three obvious sources of sustainable demand.
First — infrastructure suppliers. Companies selling the "shovels and picks" of the AI economy — chips, servers, networking gear and data centers. Their demand is easier to measure because contracts, deliveries and capacity utilization are visible sooner than the revenues of application software, so these providers look like the most predictable beneficiaries. Examples include GPU and networking manufacturers and the data center operators.
Second — companies where AI already shows up in financial results. For these businesses, AI increases conversion, reduces churn or speeds up operations, and those effects show up in the accounts. That is the clearest case for a premium in the market: the effect can be modeled and baked into valuation multiples. The list includes both major advertising and cloud platforms and companies where AI directly lifts revenue.
Third — firms are able to absorb price pressure and preserve margins. AI makes many functions replicable, so winners are those with margin buffers, control over compute costs and the ability to embed AI in ways that add value, such that customers will pay. These are companies with strong ecosystems and high switching costs. Investors are now asking practical, applied questions:
- How much more capital will be needed to sustain growth?
- Where will future profits come from — infrastructure, apps, data or services?
- What will be the trade?off between cost savings and revenue growth?
- When will these effects appear in the financials?
Answers to these questions help identify potential winners and avoid companies with uncertain payback scenarios. AI is no longer an argument — it's a filter. The main change in 2026 is that the market stopped debating whether AI will become ubiquitous; now the question is who will actually profit from it and at what cost. Investors demand specifics, analysts demand transparency, and finance professionals demand mathematical justification. This makes the sector more mature. Premiums will remain with those who demonstrate real use cases and stable cash flows, not with those who merely tell compelling stories about the future.
The dollar is weakening: at its worst position since 2012
Market sentiment toward the dollar (per a Bank of America survey) has dropped to the most bearish levels seen since early 2012. The reason is simple: worries about the US labor market and expectations that weak data will push the Fed to cut rates earlier. History suggests a weak dollar usually acts as a tailwind for risky assets, including Bitcoin. The backdrop for these moves is shaped not only by domestic U.S. data but also by a global imbalance in monetary policy.
Political noise in the US has eased ahead of the midterms. Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed chair reduced political uncertainty around the central bank, and some softening in immigration and tariff rhetoric eased short?term risks. At the same time, differences in central?bank policies remain a key driver:
- The Reserve Bank of Australia is raising interest rates
- Norway has seen higher?than?expected inflation, pushing rate expectations tighter
- Sweden's Riksbank and the Bank of England are taking a softer stance for now, keeping key rates unchanged
On FX markets this shows up as capital reallocation. The euro briefly tested 1.20 versus the dollar. High?beta, manufacturing?exposed currencies — the Norwegian krone, New Zealand and Australian dollars — have been among the best performers in the G10. The Norwegian krone was particularly strong thanks to the mix of a weak dollar, rising energy prices and a short?term positive impulse. Analysts note that these regional gains reflect not only fundamentals but also a reallocation of risk capital amid excess short positions on the dollar.
Analysts in general are moderately bullish on EUR/USD over the medium term because the euro's support factors are reasonably robust:
- The real?rate gap between the euro area and the US is gradually narrowing — reducing the "dollar premium" and making the euro more attractive for portfolio decisions.
- European assets are recovering after a down period: the rebound in equity markets and improving macro indicators create fundamental demand for the euro as a "real?economy" currency.
- Changing international perceptions of currencies' roles under stress: Brussels and several capitals are seriously discussing providing liquidity in euros to partners in crisis. If such practices become routine, they could strengthen the euro's global role and encourage issuance of euro-denominated debt, lowering FX risks for European companies and increasing international demand for euro assets.
A positive is also emerging from adjustments to hedging ratios. As global investors rebalance portfolios, demand for the issuer's currency rises. Finally, amid partial weakening of trust in US institutions and policies — be it trade decisions, immigration rhetoric or geopolitical actions — the euro earns an additional politico?economic bonus. Together these factors form a constructive medium?term thesis.
However there are obvious limitations. Broader use of the euro in the global system implies euro appreciation — a scenario exporters in Europe dislike. A strong euro makes goods more expensive abroad and risks undermining exporters' competitiveness, which is especially sensitive for some euro area members. France has already urged caution, weighing geopolitical gains against economic costs.
Changes at the ECB's leadership add another layer of uncertainty. Christine Lagarde, who has played a key stabilizing role through multiple crises, may depart before her term ends; names being mentioned as potential successors include former Bank of Spain governor Pablo Hernandez de Cos and Dutch central bank Governor Klaas Knot. The choice of successor has not been made, and markets will evaluate candidates not only by economic views but also by political ability to maintain a coherent policy course.
19 February
19 February, 00:30 / US / API crude?oil inventories (week to Feb 16) / prev.: -11.1 mln bbls / actual: +13.4 mln bbls / forecast: – / Brent – volatile
API reported a 13.4 million-barrel increase in US crude stocks, sharply reversing the prior large draw and marking the largest weekly build since early 2023. Such an unexpected rise may point to a temporary dip in demand or a surge in supply, which normally weighs on oil prices. With no consensus forecast for next week, the print will primarily increase uncertainty and volatility in Brent.
19 February, 02:50 / Japan / Machinery orders growth in December / prev.: 12.5% / actual: -11.0% / forecast: 5.1% / USD/JPY – down
Machinery orders in December were much weaker than expected, plunging 11.0% and signaling a sharp cooling in investment demand. The decline is particularly damaging for export?orientated sectors and may weaken industrial momentum. If December's reading rebounds toward the 5.1% forecast in January, that would be a sign of recovery and could support the yen.
19 February, 03:30 / Australia / Employment change in January / prev.: -28.7k / actual: +65.2k / forecast: 20.0k / AUD/USD – down
Employment data showed a sharp and unexpected increase of 65.2k jobs in January after a revised decline the prior month, reflecting a marked pickup in the labor market. Most of the gains were in full?time employment, and labor?force participation rose. Such results normally support the AUD. However, if January's print comes in near the 20k forecast, the Aussie could weaken.
19 February, 13:00 / Eurozone / Construction output growth in December / prev.: 1.7% / actual: -0.8% / forecast: -0.3% / EUR/USD – up
European construction volumes in December missed expectations, falling 0.8%, signaling continued weakness in investment activity for the sector. The decline increases downside risks to short?term growth in countries where construction is a large share of GDP. If December's reading ends up near the -0.3% forecast, the market may view that as a modestly positive sign of easing of the downturn and could support the euro.
19 February, 14:00 / United Kingdom / CBI orders balance for February / prev.: -32 / actual: -30 / forecast: -28 / GBP/USD – up
The CBI orders balance improved slightly to -30 but remains in negative territory, indicating ongoing contraction in order books albeit at a slower pace. Cost pressures persist and expected selling prices are rising. If the February balance approaches the -28 forecast, that would be seen as a further easing of downside momentum and could support the pound.
19 February, 16:30 / Canada / Exports in trade balance (Dec) / prev.: 65.78 bln / actual: 65.78 bln / forecast: 65.0 bln / USD/CAD – up
Canadian exports remain under pressure with notable reductions in shipments in sectors including metals and autos, while energy exports provided partial support. These shifts reflect sectoral weakness and the impact of tariffs and logistics on external demand. If December exports fall to the 65.0 bln forecast, the U.S. dollar could strengthen versus the CAD.
19 February, 16:30 / Canada / Imports in trade balance (Dec) / prev.: 66.18 bln / actual: 66.14 bln / forecast: 67.4 bln / USD/CAD – down
Canadian imports showed relative resilience. Weakness in some commodity groups was offset by higher shipments of consumer goods and pharmaceuticals. Increased capital goods imports point to recovering business demand. If December imports rise to the 67.4 bln forecast, this would signal domestic demand recovery and could bolster the Canadian dollar against the US dollar.
19 February, 16:30 / United States / Exports in trade balance (Dec) / prev.: 303.0 bln / actual: 292.1 bln / forecast: 289.0 bln / USDX – down
US exports fell, including lower shipments of industrial goods and precious metals, while services recorded a slight increase. The decline in exports weakens external demand and reduces support for the dollar. If December exports fall to the 289.0 bln forecast, this would be another argument for dollar softness.
19 February, 16:30 / United States / Imports in trade balance (Dec) / prev.: 332.1 bln / actual: 348.9 bln / forecast: 347.0 bln / USDX – down
US imports rose significantly, mainly driven by consumer goods and capital investment in electronics and semiconductors, pointing to recovering domestic demand. If December imports come in near the 347.0 bln forecast, the trade balance pressure would ease less sharply — a factor that could be interpreted as bearish for the dollar.
19 February, 16:30 / United States / Initial jobless claims (weekly) / prev.: 232k / actual: 227k / forecast: 225k / USDX – up Initial jobless claims fell to 227k, slightly above the forecast but near multi-week highs. The decline in claims combined with rising continued claims suggests localized labor market strains following winter storms. Overall the labor market remains relatively resilient. If claims fall to the 225k forecast in the next release, it would be read as a sign of labor market strength and support the dollar.
19 February, 16:30 / United States / Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for February / prev.: -8.8 / actual: 12.6 / forecast: 9.3 / USDX – down
The Philadelphia Fed index jumped to 12.6 in February, signaling a rebound in activity. New orders and shipments increased while inventories fell. Sustained strength in manufacturing would support broader activity. If February's print is near the 9.3 forecast, the dollar could weaken on a local but unmanaged uptick not accompanied by employment expansion.
19 February, 18:00 / Eurozone / Consumer confidence index for February (leading) / prev.: -13.2 / actual: -12.4 / forecast: -11.5 / EUR/USD – up
Eurozone consumer confidence improved to -12.4, a one?year high, reflecting stronger household sentiment about finances and prospects. If the February reading rises toward the -11.5 forecast, this would strengthen expectations for improved domestic demand and support the euro.
19 February, 18:00 / United States / Pending home sales change (Dec) / prev.: 2.6% / actual: -3.0% / forecast: 2.4% / USDX – up
Pending home sales fell 3.0% — the sharpest drop in a year, especially in the Midwest and West — indicating a freeze in housing market activity and a reduced flow of potential transactions. If January's pending sales rebound to the 2.4% forecast, that would be a sign of recovery in the sector and support the dollar.
19 February, 18:30 / United States / EIA crude oil inventories (week to Feb 16) / prev.: -3.455 mln bbls / actual: +8.53 mln bbls / forecast: +2.3 mln bbls / Brent – up
Commercial crude stocks rose by 8.53 million barrels, well above forecasts, showing a significant build in supply. While higher stocks generally weigh on prices, the market will assess demand dynamics and seasonal factors. If inventories instead come in near the 2.3 mln forecast, that would support Brent prices.
20 February
20 February, 01:00 / Australia / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (leading) for February / prev.: 51.6 / actual: 52.3 / forecast: 52.6 / AUD/USD – up
Australia's manufacturing PMI was revised to 52.3 and remains in expansion after December's 51.6. The increase was supported by higher output and new orders, repeatedly confirmed by external demand. Firms increased headcount, purchasing activity and production volumes. Suppliers reported logistics disruptions and material shortages, putting upward pressure on unit costs. As higher costs feed through to selling prices, business expectations remain positive. If February's PMI comes in near the 52.6 forecast, the Australian dollar could gain further support.
20 February, 02:30 / Japan / CPI (consumer inflation) in January / prev.: 2.9% / actual: 2.1% / forecast: 1.9% / USD/JPY – up
Japan's inflation slowed to 2.1% y/y from 2.9%, reflecting weaker food price growth and negative dynamics in some energy components. Core inflation also eased but remains above target. Lower electricity and gas prices materially softened the overall index, while higher housing and some service prices produced a mixed picture of consumer pressure. If January's CPI falls to the 1.9% forecast, the probability of near-term policy tightening will decline, which would tend to support the dollar against the yen.
20 February, 03:30 / Japan / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (leading) for February / prev.: 50.0 / actual: 51.5 / forecast: 52.0 / USD/JPY – down
Japan's manufacturing PMI confirmed expansion at 51.5, helped by export recovery, higher production and faster hiring. Market participants noted rising costs and worsening supplier delivery times. The export drive and improved orders point to a more resilient sector, though inflationary pressures remain a risk. If the index reaches the 52.0 forecast in February, it would support the yen on signs of a durable recovery.
20 February, 10:00 / United Kingdom / Retail sales in January / prev.: 1.8% / actual: 2.5% / forecast: 2.8% / GBP/USD – up
Retail sales accelerated to 2.5% in December, the strongest pace since April, reflecting a rebound after weak months. Seasonal sales and restored purchasing power in segments including food and clothing supported the gain. The forecast calls for an even stronger rise in January; if sales reach the 2.8% forecast, that would bolster the view of sustained domestic demand and support the pound.
20 February, 10:00 / Germany / Producer price index (PPI) year?on?year in January / prev.: -2.3% / actual: -2.5% / forecast: -2.1% / EUR/USD – up
Germany's PPI continued to fall in December, down 2.5% y/y — the tenth consecutive month of decline — mainly due to a sharp drop in energy prices. Excluding energy, prices for industrial goods rose moderately, indicating divergent trends within industry. If January's year-on-year rate moves toward the -2.1% forecast, that would be seen as easing deflationary risk and could support the euro.
20 February, 11:30 / Germany / HCOB Manufacturing PMI (leading) for February / prev.: 47.0 / actual: 49.1 / forecast: 49.5 / EUR/USD – up
Germany's HCOB manufacturing PMI was revised up to 49.1, returning to nearly two?month growth supported by output recovery and new orders. Firms are reducing staff and destocking while commodity prices are rising. These data point to a partial recovery while capacity load risks persist. If February's reading reaches the 49.5 forecast, it will strengthen the case for stabilization in the industrial sector and support the euro.
20 February, 11:00 / Eurozone / HCOB Manufacturing PMI for the eurozone in February / prev.: 48.8 / actual: 49.5 / forecast: 49.9 / EUR/USD – up
The eurozone HCOB PMI rose to 49.5, with production returning to growth. New orders, however, continued to fall and firms reduced purchasing and inventories. Input cost pressure reached a three-year high. The picture reflects a cautious recovery with structural demand weakness. If February's figure approaches the 49.9 forecast, it would add to euro strength arguments.
20 February, 12:30 / United Kingdom / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (leading) for February / prev.: 50.6 / actual: 51.8 / forecast: 51.5 / GBP/USD – down
The UK manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 in January, the fastest growth since August 2024, confirming acceleration among large manufacturers. Output expanded for the fourth consecutive month and new orders hit a near four-year high. Firms rebuilt inventories after a period of low activity. However, gains were concentrated among large players while SMEs reported production declines and employment continued to fall (albeit more slowly). Rising input costs and selling prices put margin pressure. If February's PMI matches 51.5, the market may read that as a slowing of the growth impulse and a factor weighing on the pound.
20 February, 13:00 / Eurozone / Compensation per employee (wages) growth in Q4 / prev.: 4.01% / actual: 1.87% / forecast: 2.0% / EUR/USD – up
Wage growth slowed to 1.87% year-on-year, a notable moderation from earlier rebounds. Slower wage growth reduces the risk of renewed inflation and helps the ECB normalize policy. The forecast expects some stabilization to 2.0%; if realized, this would strengthen the case for an improving income trend and provide further support to the euro.
20 February, 16:30 / Canada / Retail sales in December / prev.: -0.3% / actual: 1.3% / forecast: -0.5% / USD/CAD – up
Retail sales rebounded strongly in November and posted an impressive increase. The improvement was broad?based across sectors including food, clothing and fuel retail. December is expected to reverse seasonally; if sales decline to the forecasted -0.5%, that would weaken domestic demand and add pressure on the Canadian dollar.
20 February, 16:30 / Canada / PPI year?on?year in January / prev.: 5.9% / actual: 4.9% / forecast: 4.4% / USD/CAD – up
Canada's PPI y/y slowed to 4.9%, indicating reduced inflationary pressures along the supply chain versus prior peaks. The forecast sees further easing to 4.4% in January. If PPI falls to the forecast, it would reduce impetus for tighter BoC policy and likely be bearish for CAD versus USD.
20 February, 16:30 / GDP / U.S. Q4 GDP growth / prev.: 3.8% / actual: 4.4% / forecast: 3.0% / USDX (six?currency USD index) – down
US Q4 GDP grew at a 4.4% annualized rate, driven by strong exports and smaller negative contributions from inventories, with household and government spending remaining key drivers. Business investment grew but slowed from the prior period. Forecasts expect growth to cool to 3.0% next quarter as external and investment impulses ease. A confirmed strong Q4 print could temper hopes for further acceleration and weigh on the dollar.
20 February, 16:30 / United States / GDP deflator (Q4) / prev.: 2.1% / actual: 3.7% / forecast: 3.2% / USDX – down
The GDP deflator accelerated to 3.7% y/y in Q4, heightening inflation concerns and influencing policy expectations. The forecast calls for a slowdown to 3.2%. If the deflator eases toward the forecast, it would reduce the likelihood of additional Fed tightening and be bearish for the dollar.
20 February, 16:30 / United States / PCE inflation (personal consumption expenditures) in December / prev.: 2.7% / actual: 2.8% / forecast: 2.8% / USDX – down
Core PCE remains around 2.8% — the Fed's key gauge. Services prices continue to lead goods in contributing to inflation. A 2.8% read would not push for immediate tightening and will likely be interpreted as limiting dollar upside in the near term.
20 February, 17:45 / United States / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (leading) for February / prev.: 51.8 / actual: 52.4 / forecast: 52.6 / USDX – up
US manufacturing PMI remains in expansion, showing a recovery in output and shipping. Export orders remain under pressure due to higher input costs and rising selling prices. If the index hits the 52.6 forecast, it would support the dollar on evidence of sustained industrial momentum.
20 February, 18:00 / United States / University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Feb) / prev.: 52.9 / actual: 56.4 / forecast: 57.3 / USDX – up
The Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 56.4, with gains concentrated among households with investments; sentiment among non?invested households remains cautious.
One?year inflation expectations eased while long-term expectations ticked up slightly. If the February figure reaches 57.3, that would bolster views of durable consumer demand and support the dollar.
Scheduled speeches (selected):
- 19 February, 14:00 / Eurozone: Piero Cipollone (ECB Executive Board) — EUR/USD
- 19 February, 14:30 / Eurozone: Luis de Guindos (ECB Vice?President) — EUR/USD
- 19 February, 16:20 / US: Raphael Bostic (President, Atlanta Fed) — USDX
- 19 February, 17:00 / US: Neel Kashkari (President, Minneapolis Fed) — USDX
- 19 February, 18:30 / US: Austan Goolsbee (President, Chicago Fed) — USDX
- 20 February, 02:00 / New Zealand: Anna Breman (RBNZ Governor) — NZD/USD
- 20 February, 03:00 / Eurozone: Christine Lagarde (ECB President) — EUR/USD
- 20 February, 17:45 / US: Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) — USDX
- 20 February, 21:15 / US: Lorie Logan (President, Dallas Fed) — USDX
Comments from senior central bank officials are expected this week and typically trigger FX volatility as they can signal regulators' future policy plans.
