Trade Analysis and Advice for the Euro Currency
The test of the price at 1.1524 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros.
Trump's statements the day before about a quick resolution to the conflict with Iran influenced the investment climate, supporting interest in riskier assets, including the euro. Besides the direct meaning, these words carry several significant signals for global markets. On the one hand, such a statement is intended to ease geopolitical tensions, which usually positively affects investor sentiment. On the other hand, sharp, sudden remarks from such a high-ranking official can create uncertainty about true intentions and plans, which, in turn, could provoke short-term market turbulence.
This morning, market participants' attention will be focused on the release of significant macroeconomic indicators from the Eurozone. The main focus will be on the publication of revised figures for consumer prices and core inflation for February of this year. Although this data may not play a decisive role in analyzing inflationary trends in the region, as all focus is clearly on the March figures, it will certainly factor into forecasts of the European Central Bank's (ECB) future monetary policy. The results of this data may affect the value of the euro; however, it is unlikely to lead to a serious reallocation of forces in the market.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will lean more towards implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Scenarios
- Scenario #1: Today, I can buy euros at a price around 1.1558 (the green line on the chart), with a target for growth towards 1.1584. At the point of 1.1584, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is unlikely that the euro will see strong growth today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to increase from it.
- Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1538, at which point the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.1558 and 1.1584 can be expected.
Sell Scenarios
- Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1538 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1509, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from the level). Pressure on the pair today will only return in the second half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
- Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if two consecutive tests of the price 1.1558 occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1538 and 1.1509 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
- The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
- The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
- The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
- The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
- The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
