Trade Analysis for Wednesday:
1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair
The GBP/USD pair also traded lower on Wednesday, for the same reasons as the EUR/USD pair. Thus, the technical downward trends for both currency pairs remain unchanged, and bulls failed once again to break them. Today, the European Central Bank and Bank of England meetings will take place, which may adopt a more hawkish stance than previously due to the risks of heightened inflation. However, is the market ready to sell the dollar? We believe that in recent weeks, the market has been ignoring all macroeconomic and fundamental factors that act against the American currency. Therefore, even hawkish tones from the ECB and the BoE today do not guarantee a rise in the euro or the pound. For any growth in European currencies to be expected, the descending trendlines must be broken, as well as stabilization in the Middle East. Currently, there is neither.
5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair
On the 5-minute time frame, two poor trading signals were formed on Wednesday. Throughout the American session, the pair could not decide what to do around the 1.3319-1.3331 area. Ultimately, we saw choppy price action, with the price alternately moving above and below this area. Eventually, the decline began, but it started post-Fed meeting. The results of that meeting supported the dollar, so novice traders could open short positions.
How to Trade on Thursday:
On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a "geopolitical trend." There are no global grounds for medium-term growth in the dollar, so we expect a resumption of the global upward trend from 2025 in 2026, which could push the pair to the level of 1.4000 at a minimum. However, in recent weeks, the market has been completely focused on the war in the Middle East, which has a direct impact on the value of the US currency.
On Thursday, novice traders may open short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.3259-1.3267 range, targeting 1.3203-1.3212. A bounce from the area of 1.3259-1.3267 will allow the opening of long positions with a target of 1.3319-1.3331.
On the 5-minute time frame, trading can currently be conducted at 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3403-1.3407, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3484-1.3489, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3643-1.3652, 1.3695, and 1.3741-1.3751. On Thursday, relatively important reports on unemployment and wages are scheduled for release in the UK, but again, we doubt the market will notice them. If the data is weak, the dollar will likely show new growth. If it is strong, the market may ignore it. The BoE meeting will also take place, which might support the pound. However, it is uncertain whether the market will want to buy the pound.
Key Principles of the Trading System:
- The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
- If two or more trades have been opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
- In a flat market, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat trend, it is best to stop trading.
- Trading deals are to be opened during the period between the start of the European session and the mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
- On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
- If two levels are positioned too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
- Upon moving 20 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.
What to Look for on the Charts:
Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.
Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.
