Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.1544 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. However, the trade resulted in a loss, as the upward movement failed to continue.
In the second half of the day, data on construction spending in the United States will be released. Despite its specific nature, this information plays a role in assessing the current state of the U.S. economy. The construction sector is considered sensitive to macroeconomic changes, and its trends can signal broader economic developments. Traders will closely analyze these figures to determine how effectively the construction sector is coping with current economic challenges such as interest rates, inflation, and government regulation. Particular attention will be paid to how spending is distributed across different segments—residential, commercial, and infrastructure—each of which has its own characteristics and impact on the overall economy.
However, the main driver of market direction will be the situation in the Middle East and the military actions of the United States and Israel against Iran.
As for intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1510 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1542. At 1.1542, I plan to exit the market and also open short positions, expecting a reversal move of 30–35 points from the entry. A strong upward move in the euro today is unlikely.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests the 1.1482 level twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.1510 and 1.1542 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1482 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1448, where I intend to exit the market and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Downward pressure may return at any moment.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1510 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1482 and 1.1448 can be expected.
Chart Explanation:
- Thin green line: entry price for buying
- Thick green line: suggested Take Profit level or area to manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
- Thin red line: entry price for selling
- Thick red line: suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
- MACD indicator: when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones
Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based solely on current market conditions are generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.
