According to Bloomberg, citing Axios, the US, Iran, and regional intermediaries continue consultations on a possible 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a temporary halt in hostilities. This news provided a brief boost to global markets and exerted pressure on the US dollar, which gave the NZD/USD pair moderate support.
Nonetheless, lingering geopolitical uncertainty continues to deter investors from taking on active risk. US President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iranian civilian infrastructure—power plants and bridges—if Tehran does not fulfill its promise to open the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday.
In response, the Iranian side put forth its condition: the resumption of transit is possible only if a portion of the revenues is transferred as compensation for the war's damage. The likelihood of reaching an agreement in the next two days remains low.
Market participants are also wary that rising energy prices, provoked by the conflict, could again intensify inflationary pressures and force major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to maintain a stricter course. As a result, traders are increasingly pricing in the probability of a Fed rate hike in 2026, which supports the US dollar and limits the potential for the NZD/USD pair to strengthen.
Against this backdrop, investor attention is focused on Trump's speech, which may set a short-term momentum during the North American session. However, given the reduced liquidity in global financial markets after the Easter holidays, it is advisable to exercise caution and wait for signs of sustainable demand before confirming the likely continuation of the upward correction.
From a technical perspective, oscillators are negative, and the pair is trading below all moving averages, reinforcing the negative outlook.
