FX.co ★ What to Pay Attention to on April 9? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

A few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday, and the market's attention may once again shift toward geopolitics. In the morning, Germany will release reports on the trade balance, imports, exports, and industrial production. In our view, these are secondary reports unlikely to elicit any market reaction. In the U.S., more important data will be released, including the third estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, personal income and spending, and the core personal consumption expenditure price index. American data have a chance to provoke a reaction, but let's reiterate: the market will once again be waiting for geopolitical news.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There are absolutely no notable fundamental events for Thursday; however, the market continues to ignore all events and news not related to geopolitics. Last night, it was reported that a two-week ceasefire was agreed upon between Iran and the U.S., yet during the day, the U.S., Iran, and Israel launched new missiles. Thus, at this time, it is completely unclear whether the ceasefire is over. This is the question the market will need to address in the coming days.

General Conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade in any direction, as the market continues to react solely to geopolitical news, which is impossible to predict. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1655-1.1666, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3403-1.3407. We still do not see any grounds for a strong and prolonged rise of the American currency (considering all factors, not just geopolitics), and the improving geopolitical situation has immediately triggered a collapse in the dollar.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD signals only when volatility is good, and the trend is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.