The US and Iran have come close to extending the ceasefire agreement for another two weeks. According to official sources, on Tuesday, Trump's negotiating team (Vance, Whitcoff, and Kushner) made significant progress in drafting a framework agreement to halt the war. Talks are being conducted intensively, mostly via unofficial channels and by phone. One of the key elements of a future deal could be a partial unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran is reportedly considering allowing unimpeded passage of vessels from the Omani side, which would reduce the risk of attacks and give global markets a long-awaited breather.
While the world's attention is fixed on the fragile truce and oil prices, the Donald Trump administration is preparing a project intended to become a visual embodiment of his era. On April 16, 2026, the White House officially unveiled plans to build an American Triumphal Arch in Washington. The monument is timed to the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States. According to Press Secretary Caroline Levitt, it will be "an architectural masterpiece" celebrating the triumph of the American people. It will stand 250 meters tall — almost one and a half times the height of the Arc de Triomphe in Paris. The facade will bear a gilded inscription: "One Nation Under God."
At the same time, amid diplomatic successes, a political crisis is growing within the United States. The US Senate once again rejected a Democratic initiative for an immediate end to the war, prompting Chuck Schumer to announce a shift to weekly roll-call votes. Democrats intend to keep up constant pressure on the Trump administration, highlighting the rising costs and unpopularity of the conflict. The situation is exacerbated by Pentagon plans to send additional troops to the Middle East and by rumors of a possible operation in Cuba that the military is allegedly preparing to serve the president's personal interests.
Meanwhile, the House of Representatives is preparing a large?scale assault on the head of the Defense Department. Democrats are drafting six articles of impeachment against Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. He is accused not only of unauthorized military actions and violations of the laws of war in strikes on civilian targets in Iran, but also of careless handling of classified information in the scandal dubbed "Signalgate." Hegseth is also charged with abuse of power and politicizing the military. Although the chances of a successful impeachment passing the current Congress are minimal, the move creates an extremely negative media backdrop for the administration.
The week's most headline?grabbing economic development was the launch of an official CFTC investigation into suspicious oil trades. Investigators are examining transactions executed on the CME and ICE exchanges immediately before Trump's policy reversals on March 23 and April 7. Special attention has focused on a $950 million bet placed just hours before the ceasefire announcement. There is serious suspicion that high-ranking officials or persons with access to insider White House information used geopolitical maneuvers to secure massive personal profits. Financial authorities are now trying to identify the traders behind these "uncannily accurate" bets.
The US stock market has officially entered a zone of historic triumph. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 topped 7,015 points for the first time, rising 0.8%, while the tech?heavy Nasdaq pushed toward January highs. The rally was driven by a "symbiosis of giants":
- Meta shares rose 2% on news of a 1-gigawatt order for specialized AI chips from Broadcom
- Broadcom shares jumped 3% in response
- Microsoft gained 5%
- Tesla surged 7%, shrugging off the geopolitical noise
Investors are betting that a "big deal" with Iran is imminent — especially after reports that the commander of Pakistan's army has arrived in Tehran to discuss extending the ceasefire, which expires next Tuesday. But behind the facade of record markets, a much more ambiguous picture is revealed in the latest Federal Reserve Beige Book. Economic activity is rising only "slightly or moderately" in 8 of 12 districts. The main trend is a deepening split among consumers: while high-income households remain resilient, low?income citizens show clear signs of financial stress, cutting spending and increasingly turning to social assistance centers.
Business forecasts remain cautiously optimistic, but the "shadow of the Middle East" still looms over expectations: uncertainty around energy prices is named the principal systemic risk. A structural transformation is emerging in the labor market. Companies are hardly expanding headcount, hiring mainly to replace departing staff. Instead, businesses are rapidly implementing AI and automation to raise productivity without increasing payroll. At the same time, labor shortages in healthcare and skilled technical occupations continue to push wages higher, sustaining inflationary pressure.
The political struggle for control of US monetary policy is entering a decisive phase. Hearings on Kevin Warsh's nomination to lead the Fed have been postponed until next week due to ongoing litigation involving Jerome Powell. Donald Trump has made no secret of his irritation, again threatening to fire Powell and refusing to drop the criminal investigation against him. The White House clearly aims to dismantle the current leadership of the regulator while markets are at a peak, seeking to lock in the success of the "new economic reality."
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is, meanwhile, linking the future of US gasoline prices to the diplomatic track. In his view, pump prices in the US will directly depend on the success of Washington-Tehran talks. Bessent expressed hope that gas prices will fall as swiftly as oil did on the ceasefire news. The secretary's optimism is reinforced by strong corporate reports: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley posted profit growth and record revenues, confirming that the banking sector is so far digesting both high inflation and military shocks.
However, behind the shine of stock prices lie fundamental tectonic shifts that the IMF is warning about ever more loudly. The main risk for 2026 is the pace of AI adoption, which far outstrips humanity's adaptive capacities. We are witnessing the emergence of "sinister" gaps in employment and productivity. Traditional labor market adaptation and retraining processes have huge inertia, while AI is already provoking "inter-industry morphing" — a fusion of finance, IT and consulting into a single, hyper?efficient but highly closed ecosystem.
The world risks an unprecedented deepening of the gap between rich and poor countries. In AI hot spots, we see explosive innovation growth, while entire regions and sectors are being "crushed" by a reallocation of capital and trade flows. Expansion of AI infrastructure — above all, massive data centers — is creating enormous pressure on power systems. In the context of the ongoing Middle East crisis, this becomes a critical vulnerability. To realize AI's benefits, the world needs:
- a massive expansion of electricity generation capacity
- control over intermediate resources (chips, rare earth elements)
Despite all the risks, AI remains the single factor keeping the US economy afloat amid slowing immigration and weaker domestic consumption. In theory, the technological breakthrough could not only offset the consequences of war with Iran and the energy shock but could also put the world on a completely new growth trajectory. The question is whether social and political infrastructure can adapt to this new reality before imbalances become critical. For now, the United States continues to demonstrate a phenomenal ability to attract global capital: February 2026 closed with an impressive net investment inflow of $184.5 billion.
Notably, private foreign investors were the main driver, providing the lion's share of inflows ($166.5 billion), while official institutions (central banks) took a more cautious stance, registering net sales of long?term securities. This "private march" into US assets, including $91.6 billion of Treasury bill purchases, indicates that big business still sees the US as a "safe haven," even as public regulators seek to diversify reserves into gold and other currencies.
On the FX market, the dollar index continues to show a steady tendency to remain within a defined range. For the fourth time since July 2025, the US currency hit strong resistance at the psychologically important 100 mark and bounced back to intermediate support at 98. Traders have clearly adopted a wait?and?see stance: the market has already "digested" the initial shock of the war and now awaits tangible results from the negotiation process. Lack of progress in Islamabad keeps a "war premium" embedded in the dollar's rate, preventing it from falling lower but also stopping it from breaking yearly highs amid concerns about the long?term sustainability of Trump's economy.
The oil market remains the most worrying element of the macro mosaic. Experts estimate the global economy has lost between 7% and 10% of production volume, effectively destroying prewar forecasts of an oil surplus in 2026. Even with a gradual normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the oil balance remains extremely tight. The market has decisively moved into a deficit phase where any volatility is amplified by fears of a ceasefire breakdown. This creates a situation in which prices will remain "sticky" at high levels, undermining central banks' efforts to fight inflation and keeping the global economy in a state of persistent energy stress.
April 16
16 April, 02:00 / Japan / Reuters Tankan manufacturing index for April / prev.: 13 pts / actual: 18 pts / forecast: 15 pts / USD/JPY – up Japan's industrial sector delivered its best result in five years in March 2026 — the Tankan jumped to 18 points. The boom in semiconductors and chemicals, along with steady auto-sector orders, led the expansion. However, optimism is clouded by downside risks: manufacturers expect the index to retreat to 14 by June because of the Middle East war and higher input costs. If the April forecast of 15 points is confirmed, the yen will weaken against the US dollar.
16 April, 04:00 / Australia / RBA consumer inflation expectations for April / prev.: 5.0% / actual: 5.2% / forecast: 5.4% / AUD/USD – up
Inflation expectations in Australia accelerated to 5.2% in March 2026 — the highest since 2023. The Reserve Bank of Australia acknowledges that price pressures have proven "sticky and broad?based." It appears the cash rate at 3.85% will need to be maintained for an extended period — the regulator does not expect a return to the 2–3% target before mid-2027. If March expectations rise toward the 5.4% forecast, this will cement a hawkish RBA stance and push the Aussie higher.
16 April, 04:30 / Australia / Employment growth in March / prev.: 26k / actual: 48.9k / forecast: 20.0k / AUD/USD – down
Australia's labor market posted an anomalous gain of +48,900 jobs in February 2026. But the headline hides poorer quality — all the increase came in part?time employment (+79.4k), while full?time positions fell by 30.5k. The market is adding jobs by headcount, not quality. If the March reading cools to the forecast 20k, it will confirm weakness in hiring structure and weigh on the Australian dollar.
16 April, 04:30 / China / New home prices growth in March / prev.: -3.1% / actual: -3.2% / forecast: -3.5% / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up
China's property crisis deepened in February 2026: prices fell 3.2% year-on-year — the 32nd consecutive month of decline and the steepest drop in a year. Shanghai remains a lone "green island" (+4.2%), while Beijing and Shenzhen see accelerating declines. If the March data reach the forecast of -3.5%, it will signal the ineffectiveness of Beijing's support measures, pressuring Brent and weakening the yuan.
16 April, 05:00 / China / GDP growth Q1 / prev.: 4.8% / actual: 4.5% / forecast: 4.8% / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down
China's economy expanded 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, the weakest pace in three years. The main constraints were the protracted property crisis and deflationary pressures limiting retail consumption. Nevertheless, full-year 2025 GDP grew 5%, supported by a record trade surplus and a successful export reorientation. If growth recovers to the forecast 4.8% in Q1 2026, Brent prices would rise, and the yuan could strengthen.
16 April, 05:00 / China / Industrial production growth in March / prev.: 5.2% / actual: 6.3% / forecast: 5.6% / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up
China's industrial sector started 2026 strongly: production for January–February rose 6.3%, well above forecasts. Growth leaders included high-tech industries (computer manufacturing +14.2%) and transport equipment manufacturing. Positive dynamics covered 35 of 41 main sectors, confirming the resilience of the industrial base. If the March figure slows to the forecast 5.6%, Brent and the yuan would come under pressure.
16 April, 05:00 / China / Retail sales growth in March / prev.: 0.9% / actual: 2.8% / forecast: 2.3% / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up
Retail sales in China rose 2.8% at the start of 2026, the best result since last autumn. The surge in consumer activity was largely driven by Lunar New Year celebrations, which produced double-digit gains in food and textiles sales. The auto sector, however, continues to show negative dynamics. If March retail growth cools to the forecast 2.3%, it will be negative for Brent and the yuan.
16 April, 09:00 / United Kingdom / GDP growth in February / prev.: 0.7% / actual: 0.8% / forecast: 1.0% / GBP/USD – up UK GDP rose 0.8% year-on-year in January 2026, continuing a trend of moderate acceleration. Despite recovery signs, growth remains well below long-run averages (1.86%), indicating persistent structural issues. The market prices are expected to improve further, but current figures do not yet meet the most optimistic expectations. If February reaches the 1.0% forecast, the pound will strengthen versus the dollar
16 April, 09:00 / United Kingdom / Industrial production growth in February / prev.: 0.5% / actual: 0.4% / forecast: -0.9% / GBP/USD – down
UK industrial production rose a modest 0.4% year-on-year in January 2026. Although better than the market's pessimistic expectations, growth remains well below the long-term average of 1.66%. British industry continues to stagnate and has not returned to pre-pandemic recovery rates. If February falls to the forecast -0.9%, recessionary risks will be confirmed, and the pound sterling will weaken.
16 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / Headline CPI growth in March / prev.: 1.7% / actual: 1.9% / forecast: 2.5% / EUR/USD – up
Inflation in the Eurozone flared anew: annual CPI reached 2.5% in March 2026. The main culprit was the Middle East conflict, which pushed energy prices up by 4.9%. Notably, core CPI slowed to 2.3%, indicating that the pressure is largely external. Still, breaching the ECB's 2% target strengthens the hawks' position. If the forecast 2.5% is realized, the euro will gain support.
16 April, 15:30 / US / Initial jobless claims (weekly) / prev.: 203k / actual: 219k / forecast: 215k / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up
Initial unemployment claims in the first week of April rose to 219k, exceeding expectations. This is the highest reading in a month and suggests some cooling in the labor market. However, the picture is mixed: continuing claims fell to a two-year low (1.794 million), indicating the economy's continued ability to absorb layoffs. Against this uncertainty, the dollar index may show strength.
16 April, 15:30 / US / Philadelphia Fed business activity index for April (leading) / prev.: 16.3 pts / actual: 18.1 pts / forecast: 9.0 pts / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down The Philadelphia district's industry shows surprising resilience:
- the index jumped to 18.1, more than double the forecasts;
- notably, the shipments/current activity subindex hit its highest level since early 2025.
- Despite a slight slowdown in new orders, businesses remain upbeat and plan hiring. Such strong leading?indicator prints may trigger dollar profit?taking and push the currency lower.
16 April, 16:15 / US / Industrial production growth in March / prev.: 2.33% / actual: 1.40% / forecast: 1.80% / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up US industrial output slowed in February 2026: year-on-year industrial production growth decelerated to around 1.3%–1.4%, well below January peaks and historical averages (3.45%). The US industry appears to be hitting a growth ceiling amid high interest rates. If March confirms the forecast slowdown to 1.8% (growth) and 2.0% (volumes), pressure on risk assets will rise, and the dollar index will be supported.
16 April, 16:15 / US / Industrial production volumes in March / prev.: 2.4% / actual: 1.3% / forecast: 2.0% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – up US industry slowed in February 2026: year-on-year industrial production growth eased to 1.3%–1.4%, significantly below January's peaks and the historical mean (3.45%). If the March data confirm the forecasted slowdown to 1.8% (growth) and 2.0% (volumes), this will weigh on risk assets and support the dollar index.
April 17
17 April, 12:00 / Eurozone / Trade balance in February (deficit) / prev.: EUR -11.2bn / actual: -EUR1.9bn / forecast: EUR11.1bn / EUR/USD – up The Eurozone's external trade sector delivered a negative surprise in January 2026: a surplus turned into a deficit of EUR-1.9bn. The reading was well below the historical average (EUR5.9bn) and the record highs of 2025. The sharp deterioration in the balance points to stronger import pressure or a slowdown in export dynamics. However, the market is pricing in a quick recovery. If the February balance returns to the forecast surplus of EUR11.1bn, the euro will receive a powerful boost.
17 April, 15:15 / Canada / Housing starts in March / prev.: 240.1k / actual: 250.9k / forecast: 255.0k / USD/CAD – down Canada's construction sector showed 4.5% year-on-year growth (250.9k) in February 2026. Despite the overall increase, the dynamic fell short of the most optimistic analyst expectations. Regional data reveal deep imbalances: a building boom in Vancouver (+60% in multifamily housing) was partly offset by a slump in Toronto (-28%). If March confirms the forecast of 255.0k, the Canadian dollar may strengthen.
13–18 April / Spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank
16 April, 16:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Philip Lane (ECB Supervisory Board) / EUR/USD 16 April, 12:15 / Eurozone / Speech by Anneli Tuominen (ECB Supervisory Board) / EUR/USD 16 April, 15:35 / US / Speech by John Williams (President, New York Fed) / USDX 16 April, 16:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Isabel Schnabel (ECB Executive Board) / EUR/USD 16 April, 17:35 / US / Speech by Steven Miran (Board of Governors, Fed) / USDX 16 April, 18:40 & 22:00 / UK / Speech by Martin Taylor (Bank of England Financial Policy Committee) / GBP/USD 16 April, 21:30 / Australia / Speech by Sara Hunter (Assistant Governor for Economics, RBA) / AUD/USD 16 April, 19:45 / Eurozone / Speech by Joachim Nagel (ECB Governing Council) / EUR/USD 16 April, 21:30 / Eurozone / Speech by Philip Lane (ECB Supervisory Board) / EUR/USD 17 April, 17:30 / Eurozone / Speech by Claudia Buch (Single Supervisory Board, ECB) / EUR/USD 17 April, 18:30 / US / Speech by Mary Daly (President, San Francisco Fed) / USDX 17 April, 19:15 / US / Speech by Thomas Barkin (President, Richmond Fed) / USDX 17 April, 21:00 / US / Speech by Christopher Waller (Board of Governors, Fed) / USDX
Also during these days, other senior central bank officials are due to make their remarks. Their comments typically trigger FX volatility because they can indicate future policy intentions on interest rates.
