Bitcoin and Ethereum have resumed declines following another development that could derail the entire peace negotiation process in the Middle East. Bitcoin has already dropped back to around $74,000, while Ethereum is trading at $2,223.
Last Friday, Bitcoin reached an impressive high of $78,000. This surge was largely triggered by positive news from the Middle East: reports that Iran would keep the Strait of Hormuz open until the ceasefire agreement expires effectively alleviated significant concerns about global security and energy supply. Traders, relieved by the easing of geopolitical tensions, actively invested in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, which led to Bitcoin's rise.
However, market sentiment proved to be extremely volatile. Just today, only a few days after, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, falling to $74,000. This drop occurred amid a new wave of escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf. Reports of the US Navy seizing an Iranian trading vessel passing through this strategically important waterway instantly shifted investor sentiment.
This incident again highlighted the fragility of peace in the Middle East and the potential risks to global trade and energy supplies. The market's response was as quick as it was on Friday—but in the opposite direction. Traders were gripped by a wave of concerns, prompting them to shed risk assets, including Bitcoin. The market situation will depend entirely on developments in the Middle East.
Regarding the intraday strategy on the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to rely on significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the bullish market in the long term, which has not yet disappeared.
For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.
Bitcoin
Buy Scenarios
- Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $75,000, targeting a move to $75,600. Around $75,600, I will exit the purchases and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.
- Scenario No. 2: Bitcoin can also be bought at the lower boundary of $74,500 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $75,000 and $75,800.
Sell Scenarios
- Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $74,500, targeting a decline to $73,400. Around $73,400, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.
- Scenario No. 2: Bitcoin can be sold at the upper boundary of $75,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $74,500 and $73,400.
Ethereum
Buy Scenarios
- Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $2,295, targeting a move to $2,329. Around $2,329, I will exit the purchases and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.
- Scenario No. 2: Ethereum can also be bought at the lower boundary of $2,276 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $2,295 and $2,329.
Sell Scenarios
- Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $2,276, targeting a decline to $2,245. Around $2,245, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.
- Scenario No. 2: Ethereum can be sold at the upper boundary of $2,295 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $2,276 and $2,245.
