The UK labor market report differed significantly from forecasts on some parameters but nevertheless did not elicit a noticeable reaction. The unemployment rate fell sharply from 5.2% to 4.9%. The growth rate of average wages (including bonuses) also decreased but remained above expectations and remains at a high level, which further supports already elevated inflationary pressures.
After a weak January, UK GDP grew by an impressive 0.5% in February, which generally aligns with the rise in business sentiment. However, since energy prices rose significantly in March, it is likely that this growth will slow down again, the labor market will continue to weaken, and inflation will remain at high levels longer than previously thought.
On Wednesday, the UK consumer inflation index for March will be published. It is expected to rise to 3.3% year-on-year due to increases in energy prices and possibly some food items, while the Bank of England is more pessimistic, expecting a rise to 3.5%. The core index is likely to remain at 3.2%.
If the result is closer to 3.5%, it will increase the chances of no further rate cuts by the BoE, providing a boost to the pound and continuing its rise. After the March meeting, the market forecast suggested two more cuts, approximately in July and the final cut in early 2027, but if inflation turns out to be higher than expected, justifying a cut while other central banks are tightening will be problematic.
Speculative positioning in GBP has not changed much during the reporting week, with a net short position of £4.6 billion, and the estimated price is moving upward from the long-term average.
The pound has failed to capitalize on the wave of optimism, as demand for risk, which distinctly governed investor sentiment after the ceasefire announcement, is clearly stalling; negotiations between the warring sides are advancing slowly. A week ago, we saw a potential bullish impulse developing towards 1.3867; this forecast remains valid, but movement will resume only if clear signs of a decrease in global tensions emerge. Otherwise, the pound will remain within a sideways range awaiting greater clarity.
