Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen:
The price test at 159.14 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling dollars. As a result, the pair only decreased by 10 pips. Subsequently, the price rose and tested 159.29, providing an entry point to buy the dollar, targeting 159.60.
Today, the situation changed again in favor of the Japanese yen after Donald Trump announced he would extend the ceasefire with Iran, which was set to expire soon. This decision primarily reduces geopolitical risks, which traditionally act as a catalyst for increased demand for safe-haven assets. The easing of tensions in the region suggests that the yen is likely to regain some of its appeal relative to the dollar. Moreover, Trump's decision may have broader economic implications. Stability in the Middle East is crucial for the global economy, especially for energy markets. Reducing uncertainty can help restore confidence in businesses and consumers, potentially stimulating demand for the yen, which has been struggling amid the risk of a new energy crisis.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.
Buy Scenarios
- Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches the entry point around 159.37 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 159.81 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 159.81, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the level). It's best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from there.
- Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.14 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 159.37 and 159.81 can be expected.
Sell Scenarios
- Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 159.14 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a swift decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 158.65 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from there.
- Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.37 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease to the opposite levels of 159.14 and 158.65 can be expected.
What Is On The Chart:
- Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
- Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
- Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
- Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
- MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
