Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 159.07 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar and resulting in a 15-point rise.
Later today, data will be released that provides insight into trends in the U.S. housing market, specifically changes in pending home sales transactions. A decline or increase in this indicator may reflect either reduced or increased buyer interest, as well as sellers' confidence in quickly closing deals.
Alongside the economic reports, close attention will be focused on remarks by Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee. Speeches by Federal Reserve officials are considered highly significant in shaping expectations regarding future monetary policy decisions. Waller, as an influential committee member, is often viewed as reflecting opinions close to the Fed's official stance or signaling potential shifts in leadership sentiment. In the event of a hawkish message, USD/JPY growth will likely continue, although breaking above the psychological 160-yen level may prove difficult.
As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1:
Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches the 159.19 level (green line on the chart), with a target at 159.43 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.43, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the level. Further growth in the pair today can be expected if strong U.S. data is released.
Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2:
I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.07 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a bullish market reversal. In this case, growth toward the opposite levels of 159.19 and 159.53 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1:
I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below the 159.07 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 158.86 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound from the level. Pressure on the pair will return today if weak U.S. data is released.
Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario No. 2:
I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.19 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward the opposite levels of 159.07 and 158.86 can be expected.
What the Chart Shows
- Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
- Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
- Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
- Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or an area to manually lock in profits, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
- MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.
Important
Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
