Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:
There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for Tuesday, May 26. Thus, the only topic for discussion in the markets today will be the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S., which has not yet been confirmed by Tehran or by any real facts. If Donald Trump's statements about the proximity of a deal are confirmed, this could trigger a sell-off of the dollar. At the moment, traders are not rushing to part with the American currency, as the leader of the White House has repeatedly provided information that was later disproven.
Analysis of Fundamental Events:
There is also nothing noteworthy among the fundamental events for Tuesday. Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have become more "hawkish" lately, but we are currently only talking about a maximum of 1 tightening closer to the end of the year. Expectations regarding the European Central Bank's monetary policy are currently contradictory. On the one hand, inflation is accelerating, while on the other, the EU economy is showing signs of slowing. A rate hike in June seemed predetermined a few weeks ago, but doubts are emerging about the ECB's readiness for aggressive hawkish measures.
The geopolitical backdrop became more encouraging last week, but it is worth recalling that Trump's statements have repeatedly been disproven, and the U.S. president's rhetoric can change several times a day. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran have resumed, and according to the U.S. president, "they are very successful." However, it should be remembered that Trump has claimed breakthroughs in negotiations before. This does not prevent him from threatening Iran with new missile strikes the next day. No confirmations of successful diplomacy have come from Iran. Over the weekend, information emerged that a framework agreement could be signed in the coming days, but, once again, it came from Trump...
General Conclusions:
On the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade quite sluggishly unless new messages emerge regarding the conflict and ceasefire in the Middle East. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1655-1.1666, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3456-1.3476. Geopolitics remains the key influencing factor in the currency market.
Main Rules of the Trading System:
- The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or breakout of the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
- If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
- In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
- On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only in the presence of good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
- If two levels are too close together (5-20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
- After a move of 15 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.
What is on the Charts:
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance – levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales, or sources of signals.
Red lines – channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction is preferable to trade now.
MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done as cautiously as possible, or one should exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and sound money management are key to long-term trading success.
